Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
235 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2001

AFTN SUNSHINE HAS PROVIDED A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY FOR
APPROACHING BOW ECHO MVNG THRU OH AND KY ATT.  OVRLL SYS MVMNT IS
WEAKENING WITH ENVIRONMENT UPSTREAM HVNG A WKR WND FLO.  MAIN
CONCERN TNGT IS ONCE THIS TSTM COMPLEX MVS THROUGH WHAT HAPPENS
AFTERWARDS.  WK BNDRY SETTING UP ACR KY CUD BE FOCUS MECHANISM ALSO
WITH H7-H5 VORT MAX MEANDERING THROUGH CWA OVRNGT.  SO WL KEEP
CRRNT FCST OF LKLY POPS AND UP THE MINS A TAD.  ALSO WITH PWATS ABV
1.5 INCHES AND A WARM CLD DEPTH OVR 10KFT HVY PSBL...SO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CONTS THROUGH 8AM FRI MRNG.

SIMILAR PATTERN SAT BUT SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MDLS IN
PLACEMENT OF SFC LO AND WHERE THE PRECIP IS ORIENTED.  AVN DVLPS SFC
LO FASTER AND DEEPER THAN THE ETA WITH PRECIP POST FRONTAL.  BY F+48
AVN PUSHES LO ALL THE WAY TO D.C. WHILE ETA KEEPS SFC CYCLONE ACR
SDF VCNTY.  GVN ALL THIS PRECIP WL BE DRIVEN BY CONV COMPLEXES AND
NCEP SUITE HAS TUFF TIME DIAGNOSING THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES.  SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ALL SLTNS.

PDS 2-4...CONT SHRA/TSRA THREAT WITH THINKING THAT CLDFRNT WONT
PUSH THROUGH TIL SOMETIME SAT.  SO ACTIVE WX TIL THEN AS COMPLEXES
PASS THRU IN THE AFTN AND EVNG HRS.  WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF FRNT
FFA MAY NEED TO BE XTNDD BY MID SHIFT.  OF COURSE THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON HOW MUCH QPF FALLS TNGT.

BACKING NEXT SYS OFF TIL TUES AND WL BE SLOWER THAN PVS THOUGHT.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A PROLONG PD OF SHRA AND TSTM STARTING TUES.  OTRW
REST UNCHANGED

COORD WITH PIT...RNK

.RLX...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL 12Z FRI FOR ZONES
WVZ005>009...WVZ013>018...WVZ024>027...WVZ033>037.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL 12Z FRI FOR VAZ003>004.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL 12Z FRI FOR ZONES KYZ101>103...KYZ105.

OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL 12Z FRI FOR FOR ZONES
OHZ066>067...OHZ075>076...OHZ083>087.

.END/

KYZ101>103-OHZ066-075-083>087-171900-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
108 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2001

THIS IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR THE COUNTIES OF
PERRY...ATHENS...VINTON...MEIGS...JACKSON...GALLIA...AND
LAWRENCE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...PLUS THE COUNTIES OF GREENUP...
BOYD...AND CARTER IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.

ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE...FROM THE
WEST...BETWEEN 2:30 AND 3:30 THIS AFTERNOON.

A WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE...OR ONSET...OF THE RAIN.
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY.  THE OHIO COUNTIES REMAIN
UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 4 OCLOCK...FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS OR HAIL.

BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN KENTUCKY AND OHIO.  THE AFFECTED
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WOULD RISE RAPIDLY.  THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.END / NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / KTB

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-172100-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2001

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND
   NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AT MID AFTERNOON...

THIS IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
PERRY...ATHENS...VINTON...MEIGS...JACKSON...GALLIA AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES IN OHIO UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AT 3 PM. A WIND GUST WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THE LEADING EDGE...OR ONSET...OF THE RAIN. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY.

BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH
THROUGH OHIO AND KENTUCKY AND INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 5 PM.
AFFECTED SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD RISE RAPIDLY. MOST OF THIS
REGION REMAINS UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

.END/ZINN

OHZ066-075-083>087-172015-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
401 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2001

THIS IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR THE COUNTIES OF
PERRY...ATHENS...VINTON...MEIGS...JACKSON...GALLIA...AND LAWRENCE IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 236 WHICH HAS BEEN IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO HAS EXPIRED AT 4 PM. THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRODUCED SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
40 MILES AN HOUR. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN NOTED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED
FOR THIS AREA FOR NOW.

SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

.END/ZINN