Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

FAR W PART OF CWA IS OUT OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT, WHILE E AND
ESPECIALLY SE ZONES WILL REMAIN IN THE MOIST AIR - AND THUS THE
SEVERE THREAT - UNTIL LL MOISTURE IS DRIVEN OUT BY THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. IN BETWEEN IS SOMETHING OF A DILEMMA, AS
MODELS DEPICT THE FRONT/DRYLINE, AND THUS THE T-STORM THREAT,
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT SQUALL
LINE HAS MOVED OFF THE DRYLINE BASED ON LATEST MESONET ANALYSIS,
SUGGESTING SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES. STORMS COULD REDEVELOP ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND BEHIND THE CURRENT LINE. CURRENT LINE
COULD BECOME MORE BROKEN, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT.
AND WE STILL THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NEW STORMS TO GO UP AHEAD
OF THE LINE, ESPECIALLY IN S AND SE PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE
SOME LAST-MINUTE REVISIONS TO THE 1ST-PERIOD FORECAST, DEPENDING ON
HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BUT CURRENT PLAN IS TO
KEEP LIKELY POPS NEAR AND E OF I-35 THIS EVENING, LEAVE THE W DRY,
AND HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL POP GRADIENT IN BETWEEN.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE IN THE S FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORMS, AND IN THE
SW FLOW BEHIND IT. WIND ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED THIS EVENING FOR
ALL BUT THE SE ZONES.

LUCKILY THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK BENIGN AFTER TONIGHT, WITH
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WORKING SLOWLY E FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE
PLAINS. LOOKS MORE LIKE A LATE SUMMER PATTERN THAN MID SPRING.
CONTINUED DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WED THRU SUN.

FCSTID = 24
PRELIM NUMBERS...
OKC   50  66  45  73 /  70  10   0   0
HBR   48  68  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
SPS   53  70  45  76 /  40   0   0   0
GAG   43  65  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
PNC   50  64  42  72 /  70  10   0   0
DUA   57  69  47  75 /  70  10   0   0

.OUN...
OK...WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING OKZ004>031-033>040-044-045*.
TX...WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING TXZ083>090.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-222100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM KNOX CITY TEXAS... TO LAWTON... TO NORMAN... TO CALVIN.
THERE ALSO IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THIS
AREA AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KNOX CITY... TO CLINTON... TO FREEDOM.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS... BUT
ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE... ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS... BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF
OKLAHOMA... WILL END BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BUT THESE AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON... WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 50 MPH... POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY BLOWING
DUST.

FARTHER SOUTH... CLEARING SKIES EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ALLOWED THESE AREAS TO HEAT UP AND
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
WHERE MORNING SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE COMBINATION OF MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS... AND A MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA... INDICATE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. UPPER AIR DATA
AT MIDDAY INDICATE THAT THE CAP OVER THE THE AREA HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY MORNING... INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
OUT TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE... COULD PRODUCE
TORNADOES... VERY LARGE HAIL... AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THIRD OF OKLAHOMA... AND MAY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

&&

SEE THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK /SWODY1/... THE LATEST FORECAST
DISCUSSION FROM NORMAN /AFDOKC/... AND ANY OF THE LATEST SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND WATCHES /SEL0 AND SWOMCD/... FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST REASONING.

24

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
109 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1100 AM    ERICK                     OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/22/01   BECKHAM                        REPORTED BY SHERRIFF OFFICE

1238 PM    BLAIR                     OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/22/01   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE

1245 PM    ARAPAHO                   OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
04/22/01   CUSTER                         REPORTED BY SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
149 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1150 AM    MCQUEEN                   OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
04/22/01   HARMON                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC

1212 PM    4 S ELK CITY              OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
04/22/01   BECKHAM                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1228 PM    MARTHA                    OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/22/01   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE

0135 PM    4 NNW COLONY              OK   .75 INCH HAIL
04/22/01   WASHITA

0125 PM    WEATHERFORD               OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
04/22/01   CUSTER                         REPORTED BY P.D.

0125 PM    3 E CORN                  OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
04/22/01   WASHITA                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0130 PM    3 SSE COOPERTON           OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
04/22/01   KIOWA                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0140 PM    4 S HYDRO                 OK   .88 INCH HAIL
04/22/01   CADDO                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0145 PM    4 SW HITCHCOCK            OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
04/22/01   BLAINE                         ROMAN NOSE SP REPORTED BY
                                          PUBLIC

0200 PM    4 S RINGWOOD               OK  60 MPH WIND GUST
04/22/01   MAJOR                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
221 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    2 E GEARY                 OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
04/22/01   CANADIAN                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0215 PM    BOONE                     OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
04/22/01   CADDO                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
307 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0250 PM    2 MN HENNESSEY             OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
04/22/01   KINGFISHER                     REPORTED BY PUBLIC