Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
150 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

REMNANTS OF ALLISON SPREADING SWATHS OF SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER
FOCUS NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOOK AT 250 MB PATTERN FROM AVN 12Z RUN SHOWS ITS JET
MAX DEPICTION FOR 18Z TODAY IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL/STRONGEST STORMS FROM TERREBONNE PARISH EXTENDING NORTH TO
WASHINGTON PARISH.

SOME RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 7PM TUE NIGHT TO 1 PM
WEDNESDAY ARE BTR-AIRPORT (4.91 INCHES)...MSY-AIRPORT (3.69
INCHES)...NEW ORLEANS AUDUBON PARK (3.98 INCHES)...NEW ORLEANS
LAKEFRONT AIRPORT (3.59 INCHES)...SLIDELL AIRPORT/NWSFO (5.49
INCHES) AND MCCOMB AIRPORT (3.11 INCHES).

NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION/STORM EVENT HAS BEGAN THE FORECAST
QUESTION IS NOW WHEN WILL THE AREA SEE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN END.
FROM THE VERIFICATION OF THE AVN 12Z RUN 250 MB PATTERN WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN THROUGH FRI AS A SERIES OF 40 KT JET MAXES SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS AN INVERTED
TROUGH RUNNING W TO E FROM E CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
REMNANTS OF ALLISON DECAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR LOWER TO MID 70 DEGREE DEWPOINT POOLING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME CONCERNS WITH THE AVN THU NIGHT POPS
AS THE AVN DROPS POPS TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. CAN'T JUSTIFY THIS
FROM AVN JET STRUCTURE...SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENT WIND PATTERN SO WILL ALSO LEAN TOWARD THE HPC DISCUSSION
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR 60 POPS THU NIGHT AND FRI. WILL
EXTEND PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED WORDING. WILL
ADJUST DAYTIME HIGHS LOWER TO THE LOWER 80S DUE TO CLOUD AND
RAINFALL COVERAGE BUT WILL LEAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOWER TO MID 70S.

WILL DROP COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AS HIGH TIDES OCCURRED THIS MORNING
BUT ALL OTHER ADVISORIES AND WATCHES WILL REMAIN INTACT.

KMCB 70/81/69/82 9766   KBTR 72/82/71/83 9766
KMSY 75/82/73/83 8766 8  KGPT 73/82/73/82 7766

.NEW...SCA FROM KPQL TO THE ATCHAFALAYA BAY OUT 60 NM INCLUDING
LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS
LA...FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
MS...FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS, LA
119 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1145 AM    PONCHATOULA               LA   WIND DAMAGE
06/06/01   TANGIPAHOA                     SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

1235 PM    RACELAND                  LA   WIND DAMAGE
06/06/01   LAFOURCHE                      POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.
                                          WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS OF
                                          SEVERAL HOUSES. REPORTED BY
                                          PARISH EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.