Tornado Warning 23, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
345 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

NOW DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS
SHE MOVES SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS SE TX. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS
CONTINUE TO FLARE UP IN SE LA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A FEW
OF THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS HAVE SET UP TO ALLOW ECHO TRAINING WITH
REPEAT HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS. FORTUNATELY...THE PREVAILING SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS MEANS THE RAINS HAVE BEEN AND PROBABLY
WILL CONTINUE TO GET SUCKED UP BY THE MOISTURE STARVED GROUND.
STILL...LOCAL TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES AND ECHO TRAINING MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED RUN-OFF/FLOODING PROBLEMS. WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD
WATCH FOR E CENTRAL/SE LA...ADD THE SW MS COUNTIES...AND EXPAND THE
WATCH IN TIME THROUGH THU. ANTICIPATED HIGH QPF MEANS THE AMITE/
COMITE RIVER SYSTEM IN E CENTRAL LA WILL GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY
LATE FRI. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WATCH.

A CHECK OF TIDES SHOWS THEM RUNNING LESS THAN ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND FROM .75 TO 1.25 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
DURING HIGH TIDES ALONG THE SE LA COAST. WITH SUSTAINED SE TO S
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR HIGHER THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH EVEN THOUGH TIDE LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL FOR ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING.

WILL NOT GO TOO MUCH INTO THE MODELS SINCE THEY HAVE INHERENT
PROBLEMS WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED QPF. FOR NOW...WE
BELIEVE THE HPC REASONING IS ON TARGET WITH THE ETA OR AN ETA/AVN
MIX LOOKING GOOD. THIS SCENARIO TAKES THE REMNANTS OF ALLISON AND
THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY/LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY NE ACROSS SE TX
THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN SHEARING SLOWLY E ACROSS LA/S MS FRI
THROUGH SAT. VORT LOBES ROTATING OUT OF THE GULF MEANS THERE
SHOULD BE NUMEROUS BURSTS OF CONVECTION AND RAIN BANDS WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THU OR THU NIGHT. ON FRI...
THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE NE U.S. MAY ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT BOTH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS MAY STALL OVER THE WEEKEND...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN
CHANCES IN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED INTO
SUNDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. MORE EFFORTS NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE
SHORT TERM OBVIOUSLY.

KMCB 80/70/82/69 9876   KBTR 81/72/83/70 +876
KMSY 82/73/83/73 +876   KGPT 82/73/82/73 7776

.NEW...SCA FROM KPQL TO THE ATCHAFALAYA BAY OUT 60 NM ALONG WITH
LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH LAZ038-040-058-060>064-066>70.
     FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MSZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071.
22

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-061600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
645 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF
ALLISON...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN BANDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP
AND MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MILES PER HOUR.

.HEAVY RAIN...
PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW OF THE
HEAVY RAIN BANDS WILL BECOME STATIONARY...CAUSING RAINFALL RATES OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO
THREE INCHES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ACROSS LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS WILL CAUSE TIDES
TO RISE TO TWO TO THREE FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT HIGH TIDE. WAVE ACTION
COMBINED WITH HIGH TIDES COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF AREAS OUTSIDE
THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES.

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 8 FEET
WITH LAKE AND PROTECTED WATERS REMAINING ROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT.

.ACTIONS...COASTAL RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT PROPERTY FROM FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE LEVEE
PROTECTION SYSTEM. IF YOU ARE IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...CHECK
PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK
ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVE(D OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT
THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS
SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).