Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
345 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

NOW DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS
SHE MOVES SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS SE TX. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS
CONTINUE TO FLARE UP IN SE LA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A FEW
OF THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS HAVE SET UP TO ALLOW ECHO TRAINING WITH
REPEAT HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS. FORTUNATELY...THE PREVAILING SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS MEANS THE RAINS HAVE BEEN AND PROBABLY
WILL CONTINUE TO GET SUCKED UP BY THE MOISTURE STARVED GROUND.
STILL...LOCAL TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES AND ECHO TRAINING MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED RUN-OFF/FLOODING PROBLEMS. WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD
WATCH FOR E CENTRAL/SE LA...ADD THE SW MS COUNTIES...AND EXPAND THE
WATCH IN TIME THROUGH THU. ANTICIPATED HIGH QPF MEANS THE AMITE/
COMITE RIVER SYSTEM IN E CENTRAL LA WILL GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY
LATE FRI. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WATCH.

A CHECK OF TIDES SHOWS THEM RUNNING LESS THAN ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND FROM .75 TO 1.25 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
DURING HIGH TIDES ALONG THE SE LA COAST. WITH SUSTAINED SE TO S
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR HIGHER THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH EVEN THOUGH TIDE LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL FOR ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING.

WILL NOT GO TOO MUCH INTO THE MODELS SINCE THEY HAVE INHERENT
PROBLEMS WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED QPF. FOR NOW...WE
BELIEVE THE HPC REASONING IS ON TARGET WITH THE ETA OR AN ETA/AVN
MIX LOOKING GOOD. THIS SCENARIO TAKES THE REMNANTS OF ALLISON AND
THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY/LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY NE ACROSS SE TX
THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN SHEARING SLOWLY E ACROSS LA/S MS FRI
THROUGH SAT. VORT LOBES ROTATING OUT OF THE GULF MEANS THERE
SHOULD BE NUMEROUS BURSTS OF CONVECTION AND RAIN BANDS WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THU OR THU NIGHT. ON FRI...
THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE NE U.S. MAY ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT BOTH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS MAY STALL OVER THE WEEKEND...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN
CHANCES IN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED INTO
SUNDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. MORE EFFORTS NEED TO BE PLACED IN THE
SHORT TERM OBVIOUSLY.

KMCB 80/70/82/69 9876   KBTR 81/72/83/70 +876
KMSY 82/73/83/73 +876   KGPT 82/73/82/73 7776

.NEW...SCA FROM KPQL TO THE ATCHAFALAYA BAY OUT 60 NM ALONG WITH
LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH LAZ038-040-058-060>064-066>70.
     FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MSZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071.
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