Severe Thunderstorm Warning 791, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

...PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS TO POSE FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD
   THREAT ACROSS CWFA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
   POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...

SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS IT NEAR THE MS RIVER AS MOIST...SWLY
MID/UPPER LVL FLOW OVERRIDES THE FRONT. THE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SWLY FLOW ONLY
ENHANCING THE ALREADY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SW AREAS THIS
MORNING ALREADY SEEING LOCALIZED 3-5 INCH AMOUNTS AS TRAINING
OCCURS. META LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE SHORT TERM (THROUGH 24 HRS)
THE BEST WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE WHOLE CWFA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH FARTHER SEWD...JUST NOT
SURE HOW FAR SE. WITH DEW PTS AROUND 70 DEG F SE OF LEADING EDGE OF RAIN
SHIELD...WILL MOST LIKELY JUST HAVE ALL OF CWFA IN FFA FOR TODAY.

A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE
OF RAINFALL OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL/SE ZONES. SOME DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY ALONG WITH INCREASING
1-3KM HELICITY/SHEAR TOWARDS EVENING WITH EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION
OF BL-850 MB LOW LEVEL JET BY EVENING. OVERALL...I LIKE SPCS
PLACEMENT OF SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE OVER THE SE HALF OF CWFA. COOLER
...MORE STABLE AIR IS OVER TAKING THE NW THIRD OF CWFA AND WILL
REMOVE SEVERE WORDING FOR TODAY UP THAT WAY. WILL ONLY KEEP 1ST PD
SEVERE MENTION OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED REASONS.

AS FOR TEMPS/WINDS...ALL LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATES TO SFP...ZFP AND HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK OUT
BEFORE 10 AM.

.JAN...
MS...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES (GREENVILLE-COLUMBUS...SOUTH TO
     NATCHEZ/HBG).
LA...FLOOD WATCH ALL NE ZONES.
AR...FLOOD WATCH ALL EXTREME SE ZONES.

05/

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0750 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A COMPLEX AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS... NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON LOCATION.
OVER AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF A RAYVILLE LOUISIANA...TO
MAYERSVILLE AND EUPORA LINE...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COMING THIS EVENING.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT TO
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE OUTLOOK
AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO
STALL OVER MISSISSIPPI. STRONG WINDS AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL AID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NEEDED AT ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOILS ARE BEGINNING TO SATURATE IN THIS REGION AND
FUTURE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RUN-OFF PROBLEMS AND FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. OVER AREAS FARTHER EAST
INCLUDING EASTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROAD WAYS AND IN
LOW-LYING AREAS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED BEYOND TONIGHT IF
HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS...AND MAY BE EXPANDED FARTHER EAST. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS FLOOD SITUATION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1053 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A COMPLEX AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS... NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TODAY. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NUMEROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
COMING IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

...FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND FUTURE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE RUN-OFF PROBLEMS AND FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
LOW-LYING AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...RAINFALL
HAS NOT BEEN HEAVY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORM LATER TODAY...FLOODING MAY BECOME POSSIBLE AS
STORMS SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THROUGH TONIGHT...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED BEYOND TONIGHT IF
HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE REQUIRED AT ANY TIME THROUGH TONIGHT...CONCERNING FLOODING
POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1107 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1230 AM    MONTROSE                  AR   FLOODING
11/27/01   ASHLEY                         NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS
                                          FLOODED. REPORTED BY
                                          MONTROSE PD.

0920 AM    NATCHEZ                   MS   FLOODING
11/27/01   ADAMS                          NUMEROUS STREET FLOODING.
                                          REPORTED BY ADAMS COUNTY
                                          EMA.