Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 272252
FFSJAN
MSC031-065-280000-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
447 PM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS UNTIL 6 PM IN EFFECT FOR...

COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

AT 445 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE  
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY ALONG HIGHWAY 42 FROM MELBA TO 
PRENTISS. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
SINCE 2 PM. AS THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTHEAST AT 25 
MPH...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 6 PM. THE 
HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT COMMUNITIES FROM MELBA TO BASSFIELD TO 
CARSON TO PRENTISS...THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE SURROUNDING RURAL AREAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR
CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS.

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 272257 CCA
FFSJAN
MSC031-065-280000-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
447 PM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 6 PM.

AT 445 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE  
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY ALONG HIGHWAY 42 FROM MELBA TO 
PRENTISS. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
SINCE 2 PM. AS THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTHEAST AT 25 
MPH...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 6 PM. THE 
HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT COMMUNITIES FROM MELBA TO BASSFIELD TO 
CARSON TO PRENTISS...THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE SURROUNDING RURAL AREAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR
CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS.

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

MANY CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDING FLOOD POTENTIAL...SEVERE WX
THREAT AND TEMPERATURES. LOOKS OUR NEXT EVENT IS SHAPING UP...WITH
FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE SEVERE WX THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE CWFA WHERE INSTABILITY/
MOISTURE/AND SHEAR ARE IMPRESSIVE. ALREADY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POPPING ACROSS SE ZONES WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMED INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH DEW PTS AROUND 70. FRONT IS STALLED FROM NEAR NATCHEZ
MS...TO STARKVILLE MS AND WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PUT (JUST TO NORTH
OF THE JACKSON METRO). WILL CONTINUE SEVERE WX THREAT ALONG/SE OF
THIS LINE TONIGHT.

BEYOND TONIGHT...MID LVL...SRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER 4 CORNERS TO SLOW
DOWN PER LATEST RUNS AND INTENSIFY THROUGH 48-60 HRS AS 150 KT UPPER
LVL JET/85 KT MID LVL JET DIVE INTO SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CA AND EJECT
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH 42 HRS (WED
NIGHT)...BUT SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER THAT ON WITH TIMING/SPEED OF
THIS SYSTEM. AVN LOOK TOO WEAK AND LOOKS ERRONEOUS WITH SURFACE LOW
OVER NE MS BY THURS...WHILE UKMENT LOOKS TO SLOW AND SOUTH (NEAR RIO
GRANDE RIVER). WILL OPT FOR THE MEAN CONSENSUS OF THE ETA/
CANADIAN/NOGAPS WHICH EJECTS SYSTEM THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THAT SAID...A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS MAIN SHORTWAVE NEGATIVELY LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE
A SURFACE LOW RIDES NEWD ALONG THE OLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWFA.
SEVERE WX LOOKS LIKELY...BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS IN QUESTION. (SEE
SWODY2 FOR DETAILS...AS THEY POINT OUT POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO CURRENT
SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE). THURS NIGHT AND BEYOND...SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NEWD AND PULL OUT OF AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER/COOLER
AIRMASS TO SETTLE IN THROUGH TUESDAY (NEAR SEASONAL FOR LATE
NOV/EARLY DEC). POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY
FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT.

WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT
WHERE ENHANCED COOLING OF BL AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-45 KT LLJ SETTING UP OVER THE MS DELTA. PWATS
OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND SOILS ARE NEAR OR AT SATURATION THIS
AREA AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPSS. FARTHER
SE...STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE/POSSIBLY SEVERE EARLY. LIKE
MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS IN WARM SECTOR UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN DYNAMICS
APPROACH AND CHANCES INCREASSE. FWC LOOKS BETTER THAN COOLER
MAV...ESPECIALLY IN WARM SECTOR (COOLEST NW...WARMEST SE). WILL MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER CURRENT TRENDS.

PRELIM NUMBERS TO PONDER...
JAN 65/71/62/68 99++
MEI 67/76/65/72 448+

.JAN...
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF A BROOKHAVEN
     ...TO JACKSON...TO GRENADA LINE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALL NE LA ZONES.
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALL EXTREME SE ZONES.
05/

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1053 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A COMPLEX AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS... NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TODAY. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NUMEROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
COMING IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

...FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND FUTURE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE RUN-OFF PROBLEMS AND FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
LOW-LYING AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...RAINFALL
HAS NOT BEEN HEAVY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORM LATER TODAY...FLOODING MAY BECOME POSSIBLE AS
STORMS SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THROUGH TONIGHT...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED BEYOND TONIGHT IF
HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE REQUIRED AT ANY TIME THROUGH TONIGHT...CONCERNING FLOODING
POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1107 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1230 AM    MONTROSE                  AR   FLOODING
11/27/01   ASHLEY                         NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS
                                          FLOODED. REPORTED BY
                                          MONTROSE PD.

0920 AM    NATCHEZ                   MS   FLOODING
11/27/01   ADAMS                          NUMEROUS STREET FLOODING.
                                          REPORTED BY ADAMS COUNTY
                                          EMA.