Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PD INCLUDE PRECIP COVERAGE ACRS CWA TODAY AND
WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WITH LONGER TERM CHALLENGES
INVOLVING NW FLOW PATTERN AND TIMING OF ANY PRECIP EVENTS.

07Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK WAVE OVR WRN IL WITH BNDRY EXTDG EWD
ACRS THE CNTRL PTN OF OUR CWA. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING MID TEENS
TO NEAR 20 DEGREE DEW POINTS STREAMING NWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND INTERACTING
WITH OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT LOCATED OVR
CNTRL IL...RESULTING IN A LOT OF WATER ACRS THE CWFA. LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NEWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS WITH
SRN END OF VORT LOBE PUSHING ACRS NRN/CNTRL IA HELPING TO CUT OFF NWRN
EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD TO OUR NW. HOWEVER...APPEARS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED OVR SERN US HELPING TO KEEP BNDRY FROM SHIFTING MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH WITH MOISTURE AXIS SWINGING NEWD RIGHT INTO STATE. APPEARS THE
AVN ONCE AGAIN HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE (BOUNDARY
LOCATION AND QPF FIELDS) FEATURES THIS EVENING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

WEAK SFC WAVE FCST TO TRANSLATE ALONG BOUNDARY ACRS CNTRL IL TODAY
KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA. BEST THREAT FOR
ADDL HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE ALONG BNDRY (CNTRL AND SOUTHERN CWA) BUT
WITH IMPRESSIVE STRATIFORM PRECIP OCCURRING NW OF MAIN CONVECTIVE
LINE AND LOW FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES...WL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING TODAY OVR THE ENTIRE CWA. APPEARS OUR NW COUNTIES WL SEE THE
LIGHTEST AMOUNTS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING THRU...BUT THEY
HAVE SOME RATHER LOW FFG NUMBERS SO WL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE
BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO CUT OFF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THAT PORTION OF OUR CWA. WAVE TO SHIFT EAST OF CWA BY THIS EVENING
CUTTING OFF PRECIP CHANCES FROM NW TO SE TNT. REAL MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP ON THU AS ETA DEPICTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING SEWD INTO
THE CWA WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE DAY AS WEAK SFC
WAVE/INVERTED TROF MOVES ACRS THE MIDWEST. THE AVN ON THE OTHER HAND
DOES SHOW SOME WEAK QG FORCING MOVING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST BUT MEAN
RH VALUES ARE QUITE LOW. WITH AS MUCH RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE THAT WL
AROUND FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THE CWA OVR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST MENTION 30-40 POPS ACRS THE CWA
FOR THU.

CONFIDENCE WITH EFP LOW AS UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS FROM MORE OR LESS ZONAL
FLOW TO NWLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS OFTEN
DO A POOR JOB (TIMING AND WITH EXTENT OF QPF) IN TRYING TO HANDLE
ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT TRIES TO TOP THE CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE AND
THIS AGAIN SEEMS TO BE THE CASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN JET
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS NWD THIS WEEKEND BUT CWA STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO SRN
EDGE OF STRONGEST WIND FIELDS...NOT A GREAT PLACE TO BE IF YOU ARE LOOKING
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX. BASED ON NEW MRF...NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED TO CURRENT EFP.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

SPI TB 077/062 076/059 075 44+33
PIA WB 074/059 075/056 072 44723
DEC TB 077/062 076/059 075 44+33
CMI TB 075/059 075/058 074 44+33
MTO TB 079/062 078/062 078 44+43
LWV TB 083/065 080/062 079 44863

.ILX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY ENTIRE ILX CWA.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
137 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0130 AM    WAVERLY                   IL   FLASH FLOOD
06/06/01   MORGAN                         WATER OVER MANY ROADS.
                                          LOTS OF FLOODING ALSO 3
                                          WEST OF JACKSONVILLE. qROUTE
                                          67 SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE
                                          FLOODED. FROM SHERIFF.

GOETSCH

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
600 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF A CANTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

SMITH