Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
825 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001

RATHER IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE OVER W/C TX CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AROUND 20 MPH. EXTRAPOLATING...WE SHOULD SEE THIS LINE MOVE IN
TO THE WRN FRINGES OF THE FA CLOSE AOA MIDNIGHT. STRONG INFLOW PER-
SISTING WITH VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING WINDS OF 30-40KTS. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED TSRAS DEVELOPING OVER SE TX JUST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO OUR W
(AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE LATEST WATCH BOXES)...AM CONSIDERING ADD-
ING THE MENTION OF SEVERE TO ZONES THIS UPDATE. HOWEVER...CAPES ARE
ON THE LOW SIDE AND UPPER SUPPORT MAY OUTRUN THE LINE BEFORE IT GET
IN THE AREA. SO WILL SIT ON THIS A LITTLE LONGER AND MAKE THE FINAL
DECISION AT PRESS TIME. OTHERWISE...GOING NUMBERS LOOK OK. 41/36/39

.HGX...SCEC FOR BAYS AND WATERS OUT TO 60 NM.

PRELIMS...
CLL TE 069/078 067/083 065 674
IAH TE 070/080 068/083 067 472
GLS TE 072/079 072/080 071 472

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-GMZ330-335-350-355
-370-375-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOMETIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
VERY MOIST TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND FIELD ALOFT INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY
OF THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. THUS WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
A CROCKETT TO COLLEGE STATION LINE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 300 AM.
THESE STORMS WILL THEN HEAD TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE
DAY.

AFTER A BREAK SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 1/2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED 2 TO 2 1/2 INCH TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THIS
STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM SATURDAY MORNING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.