Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2001

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING OVER THE NERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS AND
SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE 12Z NCEP MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT NONE ARE PREFERRED DUE TO MESOSCALE NATURE OF
CONVECTION AND GENERALLY POOR HANDLING OF CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THE
ONE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS/MS RIVER VALLEY.

NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED IN THE ZONES...BUT WILL REMOVE THE WET BIAS
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS BY LOWERING POPS IN THE SWRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
ISOLATED SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE...BUT OVERNIGHT
SHIFT PROBABLY BEST TO ISSUE HWO/SPS. OTHERWISE...SAT AND ESPECIALLY
SUN LOOKING WETTER THAN FRI OR MON-THU. SIMILARLY...TEMPS MAY BE A
BIT COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR THE
OTHER PERIODS.

.HGX...NONE.

31/45/DH

PRELIMS...
CLL BE 073/093 073/091 072 332
IAH BB 072/092 072/090 072 433
GLS BB 080/088 080/088 080 232

GMZ335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-290930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
ARKANSAS DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SEABREEZE STORMS AND ALSO
ALONG THE COOL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS THAT PENETRATE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON MAY DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY AND WILL BE STEERED BY VERY
WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MICROBURSTS. SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
A THREAT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THESE EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE VERY ISOLATED...
A FEW MORE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. THE MAIN THREAT WINDOW WILL BE FROM 2 PM TO 9
PM. ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE
PRIMARY RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTHEAST A BRENHAM TO RICHMOND
ANGLETON LINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH...BUT SOME LOCATIONS
COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE STRONGER...SLOWER MOVING
STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER THREAT.