Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2001

...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 15 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE...

SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS STILL UNDER AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE SURFACE IS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BRAZORIA-MATAGORDA COUNTY LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND FOLLOW THE TPC PRODUCTS AND
DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF ALLISON. MORE
IMPORTANTLY AT THE MOMENT IS THE CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FIRING
DURING THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. A SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (WITH STEADILY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
INCREASING LIGHTNING STRIKES) STRETCHES FROM WINNIE TO PASADENA TO
FRIENDSWOOD TO PEARLAND TO NEAR NEEDVILLE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE SURFACE SETTING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION AND EXPANSION OF THESE STORMS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE SAME AREA. AS A RESULT...SERIOUS
FLOODING HAS LIKELY BEGUN AGAIN WILL CALL FOR 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL
AVERAGES WITH SOME 10 TO 15 INCH TOTALS...OR MORE...LIKELY BY
TOMORROW MORNING

DUE TO POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF ALLISON...EXTREME RAINFALL RUNOFF
INTO GALVESTON BAY AND THE UPPER COAST...AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT AND
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY.

RAINS BEYOND TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
ALLISON. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM OFF TO
THE EAST.

42/47/48/43/TF/KM

.HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
       COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT AND THE COASTAL
       SECTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY.
       SCA GULF WATERS.

PRELIMS...
CLL TE 071/088 072/089 072 541
IAH TT 072/086 072/086 072 962
GLS TT 075/084 075/084 075 +73

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-100500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2001

...HEAVY RAIN REDEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...

...REMNANTS OF ALLISON MOVING SOUTHEAST AND EMERGING OVER THE GULF...

A VERY SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING FLOOD EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
FORMER TROPICAL STORM ALLISON IS NEAR PALACIOS TEXAS. THIS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING EAST AT 5 MPH AND WILL LIKELY RE-EMERGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER WILL BEGIN RE-ISSUING ADVISORIES
ON ALLISON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ALLISON TO BE DEFINED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY BE UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM.

WINDS WILL BECOME EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
THIS WILL RAISE TIDES SLIGHTLY BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY IT WILL BLOCK
DRAINAGE OF AREA RIVER BASINS. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
THIS EVENING.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP CLOSE TO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS FEATURE IS FURTHER SOUTH...IT
APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH IN BRAZORIA...
MATAGORDA...SOUTHERN FORT BEND...GALVESTON...WHARTON AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT AREAS SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 59
WILL RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING 10 TO
15 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 20 INCH RAINFALL REPORT WOULD NOT
BE A BIG SURPRISE. AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LAST NIGHT
WILL ALSO RECEIVE RAIN BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FOCUS CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

THIS CAN NOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH...IF YOU DO NOT NEED TO TRAVEL PLEASE
DONT ROADS ARE STILL CLOGGED WITH ABANDONED VEHICLES AND MANY
ROADS...FEEDER ROADS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE STILL FLOODED. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL COMPLICATE AN ALREADY DIFFICULT...DANGEROUS
AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.