Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
252 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2001

A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS
THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON REMAINS
OVER THE BRENHAM AREA. WITHIN THE LAST HOUR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO LINE UP ALONG I-45 IN NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY. CLOUD
TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO COOL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ON THE INCREASE
WITH THESE STORMS TOO. A MORE SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS (WITH COOLING
TOPS TOO) CONTINUES TO THE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM AROUND SOMERVILLE TO ROANS PRAIRIE. THIS COULD BE THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXPECTED EVENTUAL FORMATION OF A SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BEGIN TO TRAIN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND LEAD TO THE INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
MODELS STRONGLY POINT TOWARD THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AND A
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SET UP TO THE NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL. IT
IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO GET A GOOD FEEL AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT BY
TOMORROW MORNING WE'LL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN SPOTS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND 5 INCHES AND APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10 INCHES
IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THESE NUMBERS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN
GREATER THAN 10 INCHES BEFORE THE NIGHT ENDS.

OUR HEAVY RAINS SINCE TUESDAY HAVE LEFT GROUNDS VERY WET...AND IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH POP FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DECREASE
TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS APPEAR TO BE THE TIME FRAME FOR THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RAINS
AND FLOODS.

42/35/39/DH

.HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
        SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION 0-60 NM WATERS.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 071/082 071/082 071 +95
IAH TT 072/084 072/085 072 +97
GLS TT 075/084 075/084 075 +97