Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
410 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2001

BASICALLY ADDED THE TORNADO WATCH TO THE CURRENT SET OF ZONES.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE CURRENT HEADLINES GOING

FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  THE GROUND IS SATURATED...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.  AM EXPECTING A HALF TO AROUND AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  SOME LOCATIONS COULD TWO INCHES WHERE THE
CELLS PERSIST.

NEXT THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
LATEST BUFKIT ACTUALLY IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...SUGGESTING 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 10 METER FLOW ALONG THE LAKE
ON THURSDAY.  THE TIME WINDOW FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS IS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE THE LAKESHORE
WARNING.  WAVE FORECASTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL
LABORATORY SHOW HEIGHTS OVER 12 FEET ALL ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY 800
PM THURSDAY.

ETA IS SIMILAR IN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN ILLINOIS...AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  A WET EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE SCATTERED RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT.

RAPID COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE CONCERN IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS
SYSTEM.  THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW.  THE ETA POINTS AT THIS.
SINCE THIS LOW IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...AM NOT READY TO JUMP
ONTO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THIS
STORM EVOLVES.  BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATIONS IS IN MY NORTHERN
COUNTIES.  WITH THE LAKE RELATIVELY WARM...COASTAL AREAS MAY BE
SPARED THE SNOW...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH
MODIFICATION OF THE AIR PARCELS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP A MIX ON THE
COAST.

MJS

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.  THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.  THE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST THRU MID WEEK WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP BY TUESDAY.

JK

.GRR...LAKESHORE WARNING....NEW BUFFALO TO MANISTEEE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT MUSKEGON TO ALMA
ON SOUTH
HIGH WIND WARNING ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1000 PM EDT ENTIRE SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
324 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1246 PM    CITY OF HOLLAND           MI   FLASH FLOODS
10/24/01   OTTAWA                         FLOODING REPORTED ON
                                          NUMEROUS ROADS IN HOLLAND
                                          AND GEORGTOWN. SOME ROADS
                                          WERE NOT PASSABLE.

0135 PM    GRANDVILLE                MI   .75 INCH HAIL
10/24/01   KENT

0225 PM    GRANDVILLE                MI   FLASH FLOODS
10/24/01   KENT                           BUCK CREEK WAS OUT OF ITS
                                          BANK AND PARTLY FLOODED
                                          WEDGEWOOD PARK. THE PARKING
                                          LOT FROM THE NUSING HOME
                                          NEAR BUCK CREEK AND WILSON
                                          AVENUE HAD WATER STARTING
                                          TO COME INTO THE PARKING
                                          LOT. WATER WAS REPORTED
                                          OVER THE ROAD IN SEVERAL
                                          LOCATIONS ON WILSON AVENUE.

0230 PM    ALLEGAN                   MI   FLASH FLOODS
10/24/01   ALLEGAN                        FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN
                                          DOWNTOWN WITH SEVERAL
                                          STREETS UNDERWATER.

0245 PM    ADA                       MI   FLASH FLOODS
10/24/01   KENT                           THE UNDERPASS FOR THE
                                          BRIDGE ON THORNAPPLE ROAD
                                          IN ADA WAS IMPASSABLE DUE
                                          TO FLOODING.

WDM

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-250200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
342 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM
EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN THE GRAND RAPIDS COUNTY WARNING AREA
     MASON...LAKE...OSCEOLA...CLARE...OCEANA...ISABELLA...NEWAYGO...
     MECOSTA...MUSKEGON...MONTCALM...GRATIOT...KENT...IONIA...
     CLINTON...INGHAM...ALLEGAN...EATON...BARRY...JACKSON...
     KALAMAZOO...CALHOUN...VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IF YOU
LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

WDM
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