Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
245 AM SUN JUL 22 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE THIS MORNING WITH

.CURRENT/MODEL OVERVIEW...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WHATS LEFT OF MESO HIGH STILL
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE
AND RADAR SHOWING TWO MCS'S. ONE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH BOW ECHO. AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF
850MB WARM ADVECTION. MSAS DATA INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND BOW ECHO...SO THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET A GOOD
PUSH. STILL WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ETA FOR DETAILS.

.SHORT TERM...FIRST OF ALL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO KEEP FLOOD WATCH
GOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SLOWER TO
MOVE IN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. BOW ECHO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND LAST FEW RADAR SCANS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF THIS HAPPENING. THIS WOULD PUT MORE OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
UNDER THE GUN FOR SEVERE WINDS. HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL A GOOD BET AS
PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 UP THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A BULLSEYE
OF 2 INCH BETWEEN WAHPETON AND FARGO. MCS SHOULD PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTER THIS PASSAGE WILL LIKELY
SEE PARTLY CLOUDY DEVELOP IN SUBSIDENCE ZONE BEHIND SHORT WAVE. DUE
TO THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS AND POSSIBLY
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL GO COOLER ON THE HIGH TEMPS. COOLEST
READINGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MCS WILL
EXIT LAST.

.LONG TERM...PATTERN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. WITH
FEATURES SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH. JET DYNAMICS AND ADVECTION REGIME
POINT TO TONIGHT MCS RUNNING JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE IN A LOW SCATTERED POP JUST IN CASE IT
DOES TRY TO CROSS THE BORDER. AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH DRYING NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. THUS WILL LOSE SOME OF THE
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
MAY BE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTH FORECAST AREA AS WEAK
TROUGH/COLD FRONT HEADS SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE PEAK HEATING.
BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW AS THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.

.EXTENDED...NO CHANGES PLANNED.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION: ABR...BIS AND MPX.

.FGF...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY COUNTIES OF MINNESOTA THIS MORNING.

BRAZZELL

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-221400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
505 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
MAINLY WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

AREA OF CONCERN...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND FORKS TO CROOKSTON AND
PARK RAPIDS.

TIME...START AFTER 6 AM SAND END BY NOON.

TYPE OF HAZARD...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

BRAZZELL