Severe Thunderstorm Warning 387, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2001

LEAD WAVE WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS
ALREADY AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP INTO A MCS AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES HAVE HAD A LOT OF RAIN LATELY AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME AREAS MAY VERY WELL RECEIVE 2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL DEPEND
ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR LANE, NESS, TREGO, ELLIS, PAWNEE AND RUSH COUNTIES.

WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT(100%), AND LOWEST IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER(60%). AFTER
TONIGHT ONLY SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS CAN BE
EXPECTED. WE WILL CARRY 50% POPS FOR HYS TOMORROW WITH ONLY 30% FOR
DDC AND GCK AND 20% FOR LBL AND EHA. TEMPERATURES SHOULDNT GET OUT
OF THE 60S IN CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY, WITH NEAR 70 SOUTHWEST AND MID
70S SOUTHEAST. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING AND THIS WILL
HELP TEMPS FALL TO THE LOW 50S NW AND UPPER 50S SE. THE COOLDOWN
WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS ZONAL FLOW GETS RE-ESTABLISHED BY WEDNESDAY.
12Z UKMET/ETA SHOW 19-21 DEG C 850 TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WHILE THE AVN ONLY HAS ONLY +17C AT DDC. OF COURSE THE AVN OFTEN HAS
A COOL BIAS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY LOOKING AT
ITS AFTERNOON FCST SOUNDINGS ON CLEAR DAYS. THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S EAST AND LOW 80S EXTREME WEST ON
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVN/ECMWF/MRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND
23/00Z. UKMET STARTS OUT SIMILAR, BUT SEEMS TO BRING IN NEXT SHORT
WAVE TOO QUICKLY ONTO NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKING AT THE NCEP MODEL
ENSEMBLE 500MB MEAN, THE MRF IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 11
OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, OUT TO 24/00Z. THEN, THE MRF GETS
SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE. PLAN TO STAY
CLOSE TO MRF/AVN MODELS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH RESPECT TO GUIDANCE
IN FORM OF FAN/FMR PRODUCTS. WITH THIS IN MIND, AN UPPER WAVE SHOULD
 CROSS THE CWA LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH STRONGEST ENERGY
STAYING TO OUR NORTH. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECEDE
UPPER SHORT WAVE BY 6-12 HOURS, WHICH WILL GIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES BEGIN A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A NOTCH FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THURSDAY, THINKING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
PERIODS, WILL LUMP TOGETHER FOR POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS OF FEW
CLOUDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR MORE EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR WEEK TWO,
VISIT CRH.NOAA.GOV/DDC/WX/2WEEK.TXT

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 063/072 057/078 831
GCK 058/070 053/079 731
EHA 059/072 053/082 621
LBL 062/072 055/082 621
HYS 062/066 055/075 +51
P28 068/076 061/076 942

.DDC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT KSZ030-031-44>46-65.

FINCH/BURKE