Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
331 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2001

CONVECTION STILL HOLDING ON FROM SE COLO INTO THE OK/TX PH WITH A
ROUGE SHWR LEFT OVER IN MEADE COUNTY EARLY THIS AM.  FCST PROBLEM
TODAY WILL BE WHERE WILL THE CONVECTION REFIRE AND HOW WIDESPREAD
WILL IT BE.  MODELS PICK UP ON INSTABILITY LATER TODAY AS LOW LEVELS
WARM UP AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO RETURN
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING S/WV DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST. COLD
(COOL) FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE CWA LATE TODAY AND
OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING.  NOT TOO TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
THOUGH, BUT STILL SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO HELP TSRA
INCREASE IN NUMBERS AND STRENGTH.  SPC HAS ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK
TODAY. CAPES WILL BE AROUND 2000 DURING MAX HEATING AND WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT, ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD CERTAINLY EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
SVR.  WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/4 OF CWA FOR
TONIGHT WITH A BROADBRUSH 20 POP FOR LATER TODAY ACROSS ENTIRE AREA.

WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER, SUN SHOULD WARM LOWER ATMOSPHERE
RATHER STEADILY TODAY SO THAT DAYTIME MAXES WILL BE SOME TWO CATS
ABOVE THURSDAYS READINGS.  GUIDANCE NUMBERS (FWC) ACTUALLY LOOK ON
TRACK.

WILL LEAVE POPS OUT FOR SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR FAR SW AS FLOW
VEERS AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM (THIS ONE FURTHER
SOUTH).  THINK CONVECTION IS A PRETTY GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
TSRA INITIALLY FIRING IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROPAGATING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN CWA.  TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST
INTO REST OF CWA OVERNIGHT AS LLVL JET STRENGTHENS.

NO CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 082/054 078/055 075 221
GCK 082/053 080/052 075 221
EHA 084/052 085/050 077 222
LBL 083/053 083/051 077 221
HYS 079/050 077/053 072 241
P28 081/058 079/057 075 241

.DDC...NONE.

HUTTON