Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND TEMPS.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS HAD 90KT JET DIVING SOUTH ALONG BACK SIDE OF
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WITH NEXT UPPER SYSTEM ENTERING PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. 500 MB TEMPS WERE QUITE COOL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
-14C AT DDC HOWEVER WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS TAKING PLACE AT 500 AND
700 MB WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES. PERSISTENT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA HAVE ENTERED INTO BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS THEY HAVE APPROACHED
SEVERE LEVELS. SURFACE FRONT WAS IMPINGING ON KANSAS WITH WEAK
TROUGH OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TONIGHT AND WITH CAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG IN PLACE, SHOULD SEE STORMS BREAK OUT OVER KANSAS.
THINK BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
THE MOST UNSTABLE. WOULD EXPECT HAIL AND HIGH WINDS TO BE THE
GREATEST THREAT BUT CELLS FORMING ALONG ANY FRONT/TROF/WEAK DRYLINE
INTERSECTION MAY BECOME TORNADIC.

SURFACE WINDS VEER SATURDAY AS FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
WARM AIR WILL BE PUSHED UP AGAINST ROCKIES AND WESTERN ZONES MAY NOT
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A COOL DOWN FROM TODAY.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE THEN MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE THE
NORTHERN FRONT RANGE. SHOULD SEE THUNDER BREAK OUT HERE AND WORK ITS
WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS). AVN AND ETA BOTH SEEM TO INDICATE MCS INDUCED VORT
MAX. WOULD THINK THE MOST LIKELY TRACK WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS POPS HERE. WARM FRONT
SHOULD ALSO BE RETURNING NORTH BY THIS TIME AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
STORMS CANT BE RULED OUT HERE. WILL THUS NEED POPS FOR ALL AREAS.

WARM FRONT SHOULD BE AROUND THE CWA SUNDAY WITH ITS PROGRESS
PARTIALLY DEPENDING ON MCSS TRACK. NGM SEEMS TO HAVE NO CLUE OF THE
MCS AND BRINGS THE FRONT WELL THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, PERHAPS ALSO
DUE TO ITS TOO FAR NORTH BIAS. PREFER THE ETA/AVN SOLUTION AND WILL
RANGE HIGHS WITH THIS IN MIND, FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER
70S SOUTH. WESTERN ZONES MAY AGAIN BE QUIT WARM WITH DOWNSLOPE AND
THE DRYLINE TO ITS EAST. MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE WITH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING OUT AT THIS TIME WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY YET
IN EXACT FEATURE PLACEMENT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GOING WITH THE SLOWER CANADIAN MODEL THIS CYCLE. UPSHOT IS THAT WILL
PLAN TO LEAVE THE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COOL WX
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THINK THAT THE MRF IS A LITTLE TOO
FAST IN MOVING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US, THEREFORE, WILL PLAN
TO START ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR TEMPS STARTING DURING THE 8 TO 10
DAY OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 052/076 056/077 075 403
GCK 052/078 055/078 075 403
EHA 054/083 056/086 077 302
LBL 053/081 057/083 077 302
HYS 049/071 054/071 072 504
P28 055/075 058/079 075 503

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/MCCAMMON