Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
935 PM CDT MON APR 23 2001

SHORT TERM...KBRO RADAR SHOWS A BKN LINE OF CONV FORMING UP ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
LA ROUGHLY PARRALELING THE TX COASTLINE.  THIS LINE HAS FORMED OVER
JIM HOGG...NE STARR AND W HIDALGO COUNTIES WITH THE LINE MOVING
LITTLE WITH CELLULAR MOVEMENT TO THE N-NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THE
STRONGEST CELL IS NOW LOCATED OVER NW HIDALGO COUNTY.  MSAS LIS
SHOWS THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR (AROUND -8) ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
MORE STABLE LIS (NEAR -4) OVER ZAPATA COUNTY.  WITH THE LOSS OF THE
AFTERNOON HEATING...AND THE LACK OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM
SVR WX TOWARDS A POSSIBLE HVY RAIN EVENT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE CELLS.  HOWEVER...THE WIDELY SCT TO SCT NATURE OF THE CELLS DO
NOT APPEAR TO WARRENT A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.  IN ADDITION
FLASH FLOOD TREASHOLDS OVER THE CWA REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

RUC AND MESO-ETA DATA SHOW GOOD 5H PVA PERSISTING OVER THE CWA WITH
THE BEST PVA EVIDENT FROM 06-12Z TUES MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CONV CHCS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST WORDING LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES
REQUIRED ATTM.

MARINE...BOY020 REPORTS SWELLS OF 6 TO 7 FT WITH SE WINDS FROM 10 TO
15 KTS.  MTRPIL CHECKS IN WITH A SE WIND FROM 10 TO 15 KTS.  THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN THE CURRENT CWF AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS WORDING
ATTM.

SYNOPTIC/MARINE/AVIATION...60/MESO...WATKINS

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.

@RUKWBCe&KDENFXUS64 KBRO 240237
AFDBRO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
935 PM CDT MON APR 23 2001

SHORT TERM...KBRO RADAR SHOWS A BKN LINE OF CONV FORMING UP ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
LA ROUGHLY PARRALELING THE TX COASTLINE.  THIS LINE HAS FORMED OVER
JIM HOGG...NE STARR AND W HIDALGO COUNTIES WITH THE LINE MOVING
LITTLE WITH CELLULAR MOVEMENT TO THE N-NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THE
STRONGEST CELL IS NOW LOCATED OVER NW HIDALGO COUNTY.  MSAS LIS
SHOWS THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR (AROUND -8) ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
MORE STABLE LIS (NEAR -4) OVER ZAPATA COUNTY.  WITH THE LOSS OF THE
AFTERNOON HEATING...AND THE LACK OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM
SVR WX TOWARDS A POSSIBLE HVY RAIN EVENT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE CELLS.  HOWEVER...THE WIDELY SCT TO SCT NATURE OF THE CELLS DO
NOT APPEAR TO WARRENT A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.  IN ADDITION
FLASH FLOOD TREASHOLDS OVER THE CWA REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

RUC AND MESO-ETA DATA SHOW GOOD 5H PVA PERSISTING OVER THE CWA WITH
THE BEST PVA EVIDENT FROM 06-12Z TUES MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CONV CHCS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST WORDING LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES
REQUIRED ATTM.

MARINE...BOY020 REPORTS SWELLS OF 6 TO 7 FT WITH SE WINDS FROM 10 TO
15 KTS.  MTRPIL CHECKS IN WITH A SE WIND FROM 10 TO 15 KTS.  THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN THE CURRENT CWF AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS WORDING
ATTM.

SYNOPTIC/MARINE/AVIATION...60/MESO...WATKINS

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE,TX
1150 PM CST MON APR 23 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1030 PM    RACHAL                    TX   DOWNED POWER LINES
04/23/01   BROOKS                         BROOKS COUNTY EMC

SPEECE