Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

SHORT TERM...THE HEAT CONTINUES TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE INCREASED IN THE LOWER LEVELS...NOT MUCH CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS A STRONG CAP IS
KEEPING A LID ON ANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING. MAY STILL REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. ALSO...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. NO SVR WX RISK FOR THE VALLEY PER SPC
DISCUSSION...BUT EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION ALONG DRYLINE OVER WEST TX MAY
REACH THE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAY BE FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE. 850MB JET TONIGHT OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL ROTATIONAL
SHEAR...BUT STRONG UPPER JET DYNAMICS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKLY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS
SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRYING OUT. WILL LIKELY REACH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. LIGHTER SURFACE
WINDS SATURDAY MAY ALLOW SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...NO RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND.

EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY. 12Z AVN INDICATING 700MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY...WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...ONLY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BE SEABREEZE
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

MARINE...8 FOOT WAVES OFFSHORE WARRANT CONTINUANCE OF SCA. WINDS SE
12 TO 16 WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 OFFSHORE. KPIL REPORTING NEAR 20 KNOTS
SO SCA FOR THE BAYS TO CONTINUE AS WELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT THAT DEPENDS ON ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF MONDAY WHICH COULD INFLUENCE THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
BRO BU 081/097 080/098 079 12010
HRL BU 080/099 079/100 078 12010
MFE BU 081/101 080/102 079 12000
RGC BU 080/106 079/107 078 12000
SPI BU 082/090 081/090 080 12010

PUBLIC-SYNOPTIC...CASTILLO.61
AVIATION-MARINE...PHILO.58
MESO...MARTINEZ

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...SCA FOR GMZ 130-150-155-170-175

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TXZ248-249-252-150005-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
542 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED
   OVER ZAPATA COUNTY THIS EARLY EVENING...

AT 5:40 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE
SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF ZAPATA COUNTY. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF
ZAPATA AND ESCOBAR ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 16.

THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 10 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMNANT DAYLIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY IGNITE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THE LATE ARRIVING SEABREEZE.

STAY TUNED TON LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

CORDERO