Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2000

PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS RESULTED IN A PESKY CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.  EXPECTED THEM
TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BUT JUST AS THEY LOOK LIKE THEY ARE FADING
THEY PULSE UP AGAIN.  GOING FORECAST DID NOT TIME THE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND THAT LOOKS GOOD.  STILL EXPECT WARM ADVECTION STORMSj
LATER TONIGHT OVER THE WHOLE AREA.  THUS...TRENDS OF GOING FORECAST
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW AND WILL HOLD OFF ON AN UPDATE FOR LATER IF AT
ALL.

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
815 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2000

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.  MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND.

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRONG WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND 5000 TO 10000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND STRONG VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH
HEIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TONIGHT.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS ALSO
AVAILABLE. THIS PRODUCT AS WELL AS OTHER DETAILED FORECASTS ARE
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.NWSTULSA.NOAA.GOV/