Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2000

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF PESKY UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER FAR NE OK. MODELS INDICATE(BUT HAVE NOT HANDLED ALL
THAT WELL)THAT LOW WILL FILL AND LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TOMORROW AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN INCREASED UPPER FLOW.

STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INITIATE ACROSS NW TX/SRN OK WHERE 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP. CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY
AFFECT WRN ZONES AFTER 06Z...AND APPROACH NW AR TOWARDS 12Z. THERE
MAY BE PATCHY FOG AS WELL...BUT DONT THINK IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ZONES.

ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COME CAPPED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND EXPECT
CAP TO HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WILL GO HIGHEST
POPS IN THE WEST TONIGHT AND IN THE EAST TOMORROW...BUT WILL CONFINE
MENTION TO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS WRN ZONES WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LOW AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS. TEMPWISE...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR MOST PERIODS...BUT WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR
SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...WARM TEMPS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY
FOR NOW. WILL GO WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY...AND
EXPECT SETTLED WX FOR WEDNESDAY AS FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST.

FCSTID = 23

.PRELIM NUMBERS
TUL   63  80  66  86 /  50  30   5   0
FSM   63  80  64  87 /  40  40   5   0
MLC   64  81  65  87 /  50  30   5   0
BVO   62  80  63  86 /  50  30   5   0
FYV   61  77  62  83 /  40  40  10   0
BYV   61  77  62  83 /  40  40  10   0
MIO   62  77  62  84 /  40  40  10   0
MKO   63  80  65  86 /  50  30   5   0
F10   64  80  65  87 /  50  30   5   0
HHW   64  82  65  88 /  50  30   5   0

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
815 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2000

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.  MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND.

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRONG WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND 5000 TO 10000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND STRONG VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH
HEIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TONIGHT.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS ALSO
AVAILABLE. THIS PRODUCT AS WELL AS OTHER DETAILED FORECASTS ARE
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.NWSTULSA.NOAA.GOV/