Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000

SVR CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NE OK. MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN LARGE HAIL WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE / MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN STORMS INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT HAIL THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER NE OK
/ NW ARK.  WILL MENTION A FEW POSSIBLY SVR ACROSS THIS AREA. WILL
LIKELY TWEAK POPS AT ISSUANCE TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NE LATER TODAY WITH IMPROVING WX
CONDITIONS. FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING.  PRECIP WILL TAPPER OFF OVER MUCH OF OK ZONES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP CHANCE OVER NW ARK THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH DRYING /
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER LOW/VORT.

SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY UNDER SW-W FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS.  BELIEVE NGM A LITTLE TO WARM...HOWEVER COULD SEE TEMPS
APPROACH 90 OVER FAR NW ZONES.   NEXT SIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP STILL
LOOKS TO BE TUE AS TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FCSTID = 12
TUL   80  65  88  66 /  40   0   0   0
FSM   78  64  87  66 /  50   0   0   0
MLC   81  65  88  66 /  30   0   0   0
BVO   78  64  89  68 /  50   0   0   0
FYV   76  62  87  66 /  70   0   0   0
BYV   76  62  87  66 /  70   0   0   0
MIO   76  63  87  67 /  70  20   0   0
MKO   80  65  88  66 /  40   0   0   0
F10   80  65  88  66 /  40   0   0   0
HHW   82C  66  88  67 /  30   0   0   0

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
417 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0150 AM    BIXBY                     OK    1 INCH HAIL
05/06/00   TULSA                           PUBLIC REPORT OF
                                           QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0328 AM    9 NW PRYOR                OK    .75 INCH HAIL
05/06/0A0   MAYES                           EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                           REPORT OF DIME SIZED
                                           HAIL.

DRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
421 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0406 AM    TULSA                     OK    2.5 INCH HAIL
05/06/00   TULSA                           PUBLIC REPORT OF TENNIS
                                           BALL SIZED HAIL ON THE
                                           NORTH SIDE OF TULSA.

DRM

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED
   ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.  ISOLATED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS POSITIONED ITSELF OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND HAD MOVED VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM FT. SMITH TO ENID AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE FED DEEP MOISTURE INTO THIS BOUNDARY.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY SUNRISE.

FLASH FLOODING IS ANOTHER SERIOUS THREAT THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN
AND AROUND TULSA.

.DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE SETTING UP A SITUATION FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS MORNING.  UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILES ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL.
THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN IS AROUND TULSA.  MOISTURE
AND WIND PROFILES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE FARTHER TO THE EAST IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  AS A RESULT...ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT EXIST IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
446 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0432 AM    SAPULPA                   OK    1 INCH HAIL
05/06/00   CREEK                           QUARTER SIZED HAIL
                                           REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                           MANAGEMENT.

DRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0511 AM    SAPULPA                   OK    FLOOD
05/06/00   CREEK                           EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                           REPORTS EXTENSIVE
                                           FLOODING. SEVERAL
          z                                 DOWNTOWN BUSINESSES
                                           UNDER WATER. WATER
                                           RESCUES BEING PERFORMED.

DRM

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 AM IN
OSAGE...PAWNEE...CREEK...TULSA...OKMULGEE...MUSKOGEE...MCINTOSH AND
HASKELL COUNTIES OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF OSAGE...PAWNEE...CREEK...TULSA...OKMULGEE
AND MUSKOGEE COUNTIES.

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA FROM GAGE TO BRISTOW TO POTEAU.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE
IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE
ONGOING AND EXPECTED FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE
OUTLOOKED AREA BY MIDDAY SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
DECREASE AT THAT TIME. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS /OKCFFWTUL/ FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS ON THE FLASH FLOODING AND THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
/OKCFLWTUL/ FOR DETAILS ON ANY RIVER FLOODING WHICH MAY OCCUR AS A
RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET LAST EVENING
AND THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN
5 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST OSAGE...EASTERN PAWNEE...NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CREEK AND SOUTHERN TULSA COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO SPREADING INTO OKMULGEE AND MUSKOGEE COUNTIES AND MAY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE NOSE
OF THE JET SHIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...A STRONG SURGE
OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THE CURRENeT STORMS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE
OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD ALREADY BE ACTIVATED AND SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVATED
UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING.