Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2000

HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  EXPECT A CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE WEST ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND MOST OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY FOR THIS MORNINGS HEAVY RAINS.

COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ALONG DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE TRUE COLD
FRONT/DRY AIR WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BECOME THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR LATER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OUTFLOW AND MAIN
CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL SET UP IN NORTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...DESPITE
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE...AS HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS AREA.
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
VARIETY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA VICINITY
LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES.

WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT LATEST MRF
SUGGESTS THAT PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S.

FCSTID = 9

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...FIRST PERIOD POPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE
TUL   84  68  89  73 /  60  30  20  20
FSM   86  70  89  70 /  80  40  30  20
MLC   86  70  89  71 /  80  40  30  20
BVO   85  65  90  70 /  50  20  20  20
FYV   83  66  87  64 /  90  30  20  20
BYV   83  66  87  64 /  90  30  20  20
MIO   84  66  89  67 /  60  30  10   0
MKO   84  68  89  73 /  70  30  20  20
F10   84  68  89  73 /  70  30  20  20
HHW   86  71  89  72 /  80  50  30  20

.TUL...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES 19 20 29

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES 49 53 70>76

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2000

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO MISSOURI. THERE WERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN ONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CREEK
COUNTY TO NORTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAVY RAINS WHICH DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA DUMPED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
TODAY. REFER TO OKCFFATUL FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DISCUSSION...
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO JUST
SOUTH OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS UNSTABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE WITH SURFACE
HEATING. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER
SUPPORT NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP...AND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.EMERGENCY AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
.EMERGENCY AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILLX LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY
FOR AREAS WITH FLASH FLOODING.

AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 1 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
741 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0729 AM    WESTVILLE                 OK    FLOOD
06/21/00   ADAIR                           SH62 WEST OF WESTVILLE
                                           CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

0729 AM    CANEHILL                  AR    FLOOD
06/21/00   WASHINGTON                      SH45 NEAR CANEHILL
                                           CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

0729 AM    NATURAL DAM               AR    FLOOD
06/21/00   CRAWFORD                        RURAL ROADS CLOSED NEAR
                                           NATURAL DAM DUE TO HIGH
                                           WATER

0729 AM    FT SMITH                  AR    FLOOD
06/21/00   SEBASTIAN                       STREET FLOODING - ASH
                                           ROAD CLOSED IN FT. SMITH

0729 AM    OZARK                     AR    FLOOD
06/21/00   FRANKLIN                        RURAL ROADS CLOSED NEAR
                                           OZARK DUE TO HIGH WATER

0729 AM    TAHLEQUAH                 OK    FLOOD
06/21/00   CHEROKEE                        SH82 NORTH OF TAHLEQUAH
                                           1 -2 FEET OF WATER OVER
                                           ROADWAY