Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
840 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2000

THE LATEST KSJT REFLECTIVITY LOOP AND 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG A CROSS PLAINS TO CARLSBAD TO MERTZON TO
MIDKIFF LINE. THE DRYLINE WAS ALONG A MERTZON TO DRYDEN LINE AND WAS
RETREATING SLOWLY WEST. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
FORMING AND TRAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND BEGINNING TO BACK BUILD
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP JUST SOUTH OF
BROWNWOOD TO SJT LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE 850 MB FRONT ALONG THIS
LINE. GOOD 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
850 MB FRONT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING. WITH THE STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY... TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT... WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR THE COUNTIES IN THE WATCH AND ADD THE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HEADER TO THE ZONES.

.SJT...NONE.

TEW
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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-190200-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
517 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2000

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE SLIGHT RISK THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ENCOMPASSES AN AREA
SOUTHEAST OF A THROCKMORTON TO STERLING CITY LINE...AND NORTH OF AN
ELDORADO TO CHEROKEE LINE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
HEARTLAND THIS EVENING...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
DEVELOPING.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED..

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSLBB. FOR THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.
FOR THE NORTH TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

19
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