Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
204 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2000

SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ELEVATED
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS A VERY MOIST...
UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIFTED ACROSS SHALLOW COOL DOME. THE 12Z
DEL RIO SOUNDING HAD CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT NEAR TWO INCHES. CONVECTION BEING
HELPED ALONG BY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT 5H
SHORTWAVE NEAR ABQ.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE. SAID JET COULD FEED ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF THE DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE BIG COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT.

PROMISING LOOKING NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT SHAPING UP FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT... WHEN A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEARS DOWN ON WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. NO SHORTAGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE AS WELL. WE/LL GO WITH A UNCHARACTERISTIC 30 POP
IN THE 4TH/5TH PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH. IT APPEARS THE MONTH
OF MAY HAS FINALLY SHOWED UP.

PRELIMS...

ABI 056/080/061/082 7123
SJT 060/082/063/085 7113
JCT 062/081/065/084 7113

.SJT...NONE.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-192300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
218 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2000

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER A SHALLOW COLD FRONT IN
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIFT OVER THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL ALSO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...EHHANCING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
DIME AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL HAS ALREADY BEEN PRODUCED IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED..

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSLBB. FOR THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.
FOR THE NORTH TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

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