Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH CHANCES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR SATURDAY.

FRONT DRAPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY NICELY FROM TRUMAN LAKE
TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF LEBANON. JUST STARTING TO SEE SOME CUMULUS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF KSGF.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN MY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WERE IN
THE THE LOWER 80S AT 18Z...WHILE KJLN WAS IN THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUE OF 101. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE ABOUT 3000 J/KG.
BELIEVE THAT ONCE 85H WINDS BACK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST....AS
PROGGED BY THE ETA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR SOME PULSE TYPE CONVECTION. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WILL MENTION RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

USED PRIMARILY THE ETA AND AVN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH
WILL NOT FOLLOW QPF FIELDS TO CLOSELY. MODELS NOT PICKING UP
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE AREA VERY WELL...PROBABLY BECAUSE BOUNDARY WAS
REINFORCED BY CONVECTION THAT WENT THROUGH CENTRAL MO EARLIER TODAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLATTEN RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY
THAN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TIME.

85H JET TO BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER 5H SHORTWAVE. FRONT NOW OVER THE AREA SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. AS MENTIONED...WILL KEEP
POPS IN NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH FRONT STILL IN THE AREA.
FOR SATURDAY...BELIEVE THAT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
EASTERN MO ALONG THE 85H FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS STILL POOLED AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. WILL PROBABLY TRIM BACK POPS IN
AREAL COVERAGE FOR SATURDAY...MAINLY KEEPING THEM IN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

WARM SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. ETA TOO DRY WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN SOIL AND PLANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. WILL LET MIDSHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS
FOR A POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAT
INDICES IN THE FORECAST.

FOR SUNDAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MO AND EAST CENTRAL KS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE IN MY NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY. OLD MRF HANGS FRONT UP
TO OUR NORTH DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WILL STICK CLOSE TO FWC/FAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FORECAST.

FCSTRID = 26
SGF   73  91  73  91 /  30  20  20  20
JLN   75  93  75  93 /  10  10  10  20
UNO   72  91  73  91 /  40  40  20  20
VIH   71  88  72  90 /  40  40  20  20

.SGF...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DSA

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2000

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM JUST
SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY...TO FORT LEONARD WOOD...TO NEAR PADUCAH
KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBLE FOCUS OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA...TO BOLIVAR...
TO SALEM...WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DO DEVELOP...
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
WEATHER RELATED ACTIVATION FOR SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS
NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD WATCH RADAR
TRENDS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105
DEGREES IN THE JOPLIN...PINEVILLE...AND FORT SCOTT AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...USE APPROPRIATE CAUTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...PLAN APPROPRIATELY. HAVE PLENTY OF
WATER ON HAND...AND IF POSSIBLE TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN SHADED OR
AIR CONDITIONED AREAS.

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0700 PM    1 W CROCKER               MO   WIND DAMAGE
08/03/00   PULASKI                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.