Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

FORECAST CONCERNS: THREAT OF SEVERE WX...RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE
SRN PART OF THE FA...ROUGHLY ALONG A KUNO-KHRO-KFYV LINE. TEMPS ARE
RUNNING IN THE MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH READINGS NEAR 90 JUST
TO THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR ADVECTING SLOWLY IN FROM THE N WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR NRN COUNTIES OF CWA.

MODELS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRENDS THIS
FCST PD. QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THRU 48
HOURS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO AFFECT THE FA. MODELS
STILL HAVING SOME PROBLEMS RESOLVING TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. OVERALL TREND IS A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONDITIONS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST
RUC2 DATA INDICATE CAPES RUNNING FROM 3500-4500 J/KG ACROSS MY SRN
COUNTIES. LIMITING FACTOR STILL IS CAP. 18Z KSGF SOUNDING HAD H70
TEMP OF +12C...MATCHING WELL WITH RUC2 DATA.

CONVECTION NOW ACROSS WRN CO AND WRN KS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FIRST IN THE
SERIES OF WAVES TO AFFECT THE FA. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION EXPAND
LATER THIS AFTN AS UPPER FEATURE TRACKS EWD AND INTERACTS WITH
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. CHANCE OF SVR STORMS STILL LOOKS
GOOD TONIGHT...AGREEING WELL WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. HEAVY RAIN ALSO
A THREAT ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO TONIGHT. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON FFA
ATTM...WITH 3 HOUR FFG VALUES RUNNING 3-4 INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR. EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO AND MCS
OVERNIGHT...TRACKING EWD INTO THURSDAY.

MODELS SHOW THAT BULK OF ACTIVITY OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY WRN ZNS. WILL NOT GET FANCY ON TIMING
AT THIS POINT THOUGH AND MENTION A DIMINISHING TREND.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD THURSDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET WITH AID ON MORE TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. PLAN TO LEAVE A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA IN MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDC ANOTHER MCS
FORMING ACRS KS AND MOVING NEWD. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIMIT FURTHER CONVECTIVE FORMATION.

MOS TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. TEMPS ON FRIDAY COULD REALLY GET OUT OF HAND IF WE SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER THREAT OF SVR WX
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THOUGH THE FA SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. QUIET
WEATHER APPEARS IN THE STORE FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY CCF (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY):

SGF TB 062/073 064/082 065 097743
JLN TB 063/075 066/083 068 097743
UNO TB 065/077 065/084 068 095633
VIH ET 059/071 061/081 063 093355

.SGF...NONE.

CR

KSZ073-097-101-250600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
634 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A TORNADO
WATCH UNTIL 1 AM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

BOURBON...CRAWFORD...AND CHEROKEE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...WITH SOME STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE SEVERE STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA.  PERSONS IN
THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER SHOULD A WARNING
BE ISSUED.

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-250700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
726 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

VERNON...BARTON...JASPER...NEWTON...MCDONALD...SAINT CLAIR...
CEDAR...DADE...LAWRENCE...BARRY...HICKORY...POLK...GREENE...
CHRISTIAN...STONE...TANEY...CAMDEN...DALLAS...LACLEDE...WEBSTER...
WRIGHT...DOUGLAS...OZARK...PULASKI...PHELPS...TEXAS...DENT...
SHANNON...HOWELL...OREGON.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
HAVE PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SEVERE STORMS WHICH DEVELOP.

A WATCH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD A WARNING BE
ISSUED.

LINDENBERG