Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2000

MAIN FCST CONCERN DEALS WITH WRM ADVCTN/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PSBL
PCPN TUE.  TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE ONLY CONCERN IN SHORT TERM.

FOR TDA...CDFNT AND PCPN HAS PUSHED S OF FCST AREA WITH A FEW MID
AND HIGH CLDS STILL EVIDENT ON STLT SERN ZONES.  MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS MUCH OF AREA THIS
AFTN...BUT WITH YDAS SIGFNT RAINFALL...INHERENT MOIST GROUND AND
STANDING WATER COULD ADD ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW CU DVLPMNT...SPCLY
ALNG MO RVR AND ACRS S.  ETA A COMPROMISE W/850 MB TEMPS AND SUPPORT
CURRENT FCST CONSIDERING CONDS FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR MIXING TDA.  WL
ALSO MAKE LTL OR NO CHANGES TO TNGTS FCST AS FIRST PART OF TNGT
ANYWAY SHOULD BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.  WL INCLUDE FOG ERN
SECTIONS BUT EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLDS W DUE TO WRM ADVCTN AND
THIS MAY LMT FOG DVLPMNT THERE.

FOR TUE...ALL 00Z MODELS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN RH AND GENERATED PCPN
ACRS FCST AREA.  ETA SHOWD DECENT QG FORCING BY AFTN...PRBLY DUE TO
WARM ADVCTN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 310 DEG K SFC LOWERED COND PRES
DEFICITS...MOST PRONOUNCED ACRS NRN ZONES WHERE IT DROPPED BLO 20 MB.
MID LVL TEMPS...AT 500 MB...ALSO FALL.  IF CLOUDS THICKEN QUICK
ENOUGH...FWC TEMPS MAY NOT BE REACHED...AND 00Z FWC HAS COME IN A
CATEGORY COOLER THAN 12Z RUN.  HOWEVER...MESOETA SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH LATE MORNING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO
RECOVER TO NEAR GUID BFR LEVELING OFF OR EVEN FALLING DUE TO
CLDS/SCT PCPN...AND 06Z MESOETA KEPT PCPN THRU 21Z ACRS NRN ZONES.
WL ADJ FCST TO FWC GUID N AND INTRODUCE SMALL AFTN POPS W AND N.

PCPN CHCS LINGER INTO WED AND CURRENT EXTDD COVERS THIS.

.OMA...NONE
CHERMOK

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-252230-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEED ACROSS THE AREA.  IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SPOTTERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.
IN SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA SPOTTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
REQUIRED FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  SPOTTERS IN SOUTHWEST
IOWA ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS.  THIS AIR
BEING FORCE ALOFT BY HEAVIER AND COOLER AIR HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.

ALONG WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ON INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A MODESTLY STRONG SHORT WAVE ALOFT MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA ARE MORE LIKELY TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT AND SOME THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS.   THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS.~

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF A LINCOLN TO OMAHA LINE AFTER 700 OR
800 PM.

POWERS

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-252230-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2000 ...CORRECTED SOME TYPOS...

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA.  IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SPOTTERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.
IN SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA SPOTTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
REQUIRED FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  SPOTTERS IN SOUTHWEST
IOWA ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS.  THIS AIR
BEING FORCED ALOFT BY HEAVIER AND COOLER AIR HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.

ALONG WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ON INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A MODESTLY STRONG SHORT WAVE ALOFT MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA ARE MORE LIKELY TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT AND SOME THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS.   THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF A LINCOLN TO OMAHA LINE AFTER 700 OR
800 7PM.

POWERS/JEK