Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2000

MAIN FCST CONCERN DEALS WITH WRM ADVCTN/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PSBL
PCPN TUE.  TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE ONLY CONCERN IN SHORT TERM.

FOR TDA...CDFNT AND PCPN HAS PUSHED S OF FCST AREA WITH A FEW MID
AND HIGH CLDS STILL EVIDENT ON STLT SERN ZONES.  MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS MUCH OF AREA THIS
AFTN...BUT WITH YDAS SIGFNT RAINFALL...INHERENT MOIST GROUND AND
STANDING WATER COULD ADD ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW CU DVLPMNT...SPCLY
ALNG MO RVR AND ACRS S.  ETA A COMPROMISE W/850 MB TEMPS AND SUPPORT
CURRENT FCST CONSIDERING CONDS FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR MIXING TDA.  WL
ALSO MAKE LTL OR NO CHANGES TO TNGTS FCST AS FIRST PART OF TNGT
ANYWAY SHOULD BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.  WL INCLUDE FOG ERN
SECTIONS BUT EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLDS W DUE TO WRM ADVCTN AND
THIS MAY LMT FOG DVLPMNT THERE.

FOR TUE...ALL 00Z MODELS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN RH AND GENERATED PCPN
ACRS FCST AREA.  ETA SHOWD DECENT QG FORCING BY AFTN...PRBLY DUE TO
WARM ADVCTN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 310 DEG K SFC LOWERED COND PRES
DEFICITS...MOST PRONOUNCED ACRS NRN ZONES WHERE IT DROPPED BLO 20 MB.
MID LVL TEMPS...AT 500 MB...ALSO FALL.  IF CLOUDS THICKEN QUICK
ENOUGH...FWC TEMPS MAY NOT BE REACHED...AND 00Z FWC HAS COME IN A
CATEGORY COOLER THAN 12Z RUN.  HOWEVER...MESOETA SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH LATE MORNING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO
RECOVER TO NEAR GUID BFR LEVELING OFF OR EVEN FALLING DUE TO
CLDS/SCT PCPN...AND 06Z MESOETA KEPT PCPN THRU 21Z ACRS NRN ZONES.
WL ADJ FCST TO FWC GUID N AND INTRODUCE SMALL AFTN POPS W AND N.

PCPN CHCS LINGER INTO WED AND CURRENT EXTDD COVERS THIS.

.OMA...NONE
CHERMOK

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-251800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
505 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RETURNING TO EASTERN NEBRASKA WAS CAUSING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...AND THESE STORMS
COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN IOWA.  INSTABILITY WAS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THIS
MORNING...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.  IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA ARE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF A LINCOLN TO OMAHA LINE AFTER 700 OR 800 PM.

CHERMOK