Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2000

OBVIOUS CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IN THE FIRST PERIOD. COLD FRONT/DRY LINE IS NOW ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AND IS ACTING A FOCUSING MECHASNISM FOR CONVECTION.
CAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. SHEARS
ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADIC CELLS...BUT WITH HIGH CAPES AND
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES PRESENT...CANNOT RULE THEM OUT. SO...WILL
MENTION SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW FOR NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES...SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE
COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE MOVING SLOWLY...AND AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY MOIST OVER THOSE COUNTIES. WSR-88D PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES ALREADY INDICATE ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN WITHIN ONE
HOUR.

THE AIR MASS COOLS AND DRIES MONDAY. ETA/AVN SUGGESTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. MODELS
ALSO INDICATE MOSITURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA...THOUGH MOST IT WILL
BE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY EXCEPT TO MENTION
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COLROADO COUNTIES.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...MRF AND UKMET ARE
INDICATING A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON DAY 3 AND 4
TO A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL US BY DAY 5. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND A MUCH WEAKER WAVE ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER ON THOSE
DAYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
BOTH OF THESE DAYS...ALTHOUGH WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.
WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP AREA DRY AND WARM
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

.GLD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM
       COUNTIES.

MENTZER/JOHNSON

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-260600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1003 AM MDT SUN JUN 25 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WITH THE HIGH LEVEL OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
STORMS WILL BEGIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THIS FRONT...A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

SVEN

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 AM MDT SUN JUN 25 2000

...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO...

A COLD FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO
NORTHEAST COLORADO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA
TO FLAGLER COLORADO AROUND 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT).

THE AIR MASS IS ALSO BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.  SOME STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA HAS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST OF
A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE.

HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ALSO SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOS
TO DEVELOP. BE SURE TO LISTEN FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

MENTZER

NEZ081-252030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1236 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2000

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR RED WILLOW COUNTY IN NEBRASKA
UNTIL 8 PM CDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR RED
WILLOW COUNTY IN NEBRASKA UNTIL 8 PM CDT. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW TORNADO SAFETY RzULES. KEEP TRACK
OF LATER WEATHER UPDATES TO THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

MENTZER