Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 PM MDT SAT JUN 24 2000

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE THE CHALLENGES
WITH THIS PACKAGE. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...SO THEY ARE PROBABLY
UNDERDONE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN THE SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. CAPES IN
THIS REGION ARE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CAP INDICATED.
SO...WILL MENTION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY SPREADING TO THE EAST LATER.

EVEN WITH POOR MOISTURE RESOLUTION...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
SUNDAY HAS EVEN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OBVIOUSLY...THE FRONT WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL ALSO ARRIVE ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER FOR
FURTHER ENHANCEMENT. SO WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.  AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.  AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO RAISE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST...ALL MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
PROGGED BY MRF AND UKMET TO MOVE ACROSS REGION WEDNESDAY.  UKMET IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN MRF FOR THIS WAVE AND GIVEN MRF TENDENCY TO
KEEP SYSTEMS TO SHALLOW...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN TWO
MODELS.  POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREA INTO FIRST
DAY OF EXTENDED PERIOD.  EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SECTIONS
OF EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.  GIVEN WEAK WAVES HIDDEN WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
GIVE COLORADO ZONES A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAIN
DRY TUESDAY. WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL GIVE ALL ZONES A CHANCE FOR THUNDER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY...BUT THEN
GRADUALLY WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.  WILL GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE{ TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.

.GLD...NONE.
MENTZER/JOHNSON