Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM BOWIE TO EASTLAND AT
2130Z.  UNUSUALLY HIGH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS IN
PLACE WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR ALTUS OK...DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH BRECKENRIDGE TO NEAR SAN ANGELO...AND A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH DALLAS TO LONGVIEW.  JET MAX WILL
WORK AROUND THE UPPER LOW SYSTEM THIS EVENING...SO STRONG LIFT
SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION LOCATED FROM D/FW
EASTWARD.  IN ADDITION...CLOUDS WERE BREAKING A BIT AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A BIT OF SURFACE HEATING BEFORE SUNDOWN.  EXPECT SEVERE
THREAT TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS HIGH.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD COOL OFF
AREA.  TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL DEFER UNTIL WE GET A SOLID HANDLE ON THE DEPARTURE
OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SW
U.S. DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THE MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD COME THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BRINGING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

DFW 49/63/40/65 5000
ACT 53/66/41/65 6000

.FTW...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THIS EVENING.

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TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-022200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1220 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING FOR THAT PART OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LOCATED EAST OF A
BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...TO STEPHENVILLE LINE.  SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE RISK AREA...IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE MODERATE RISK AREA
INCLUDES THE CITIES OF SHERMAN...PARIS...SULPHUR SPRINGS...CANTON...
AND THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN AMARILLO AND
LUBBOCK WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TO
NEAR CORSICANA.  A DRY LINE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM THE WARM FRONT
TO EAST OF MIDLAND.  THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE SURGES EAST.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE BOUNDARIES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING BURSTS OF WIND.  IN ADDITION...A FEW
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPAWN TORNADOES WITH DESTRUCTIVE
POTENTIAL.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND DISASTER PLANS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE ACTIVATED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF A BOWIE...WEATHERFORD...TO LAMPASAS LINE.
WEST OF A BONHAM...KAUFMAN...CAMERON LINE...ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 300 AND 500 PM...THIS INCLUDES WACO AND THE DALLAS FORT
WORTH METROPLEX.  ACTIVATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

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