Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CST THU MAR 2 2000

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS WITH
WELL DEFINED DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SANDERSON.  WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW...SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF WACO AND
LUFKIN.  EXPECT WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING DRY LINE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.  STILL EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND AHEAD OF THESE
BOUNDARIES AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ENTERS NORTH TEXAS.

WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR WIND AND TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW
CLOUDS.  WILL KEEP PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL ABOUT 04Z.  AFTER
04Z...EXPECT DRY AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND SQUALL LINE.  WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG THUNDEJRSTORMS BETWEEN 22 AND 01Z AND A PROB
40 GROUP BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z. EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE METROPLEX DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

.FTW...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES TODAY.

79

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-022200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1220 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING FOR THAT PART OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LOCATED EAST OF A
BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...TO STEPHENVILLE LINE.  SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE RISK AREA...IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  THE MODERATE RISK AREA
INCLUDES THE CITIES OF SHERMAN...PARIS...SULPHUR SPRINGS...CANTON...
AND THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN AMARILLO AND
LUBBOCK WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TO
NEAR CORSICANA.  A DRY LINE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM THE WARM FRONT
TO EAST OF MIDLAND.  THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE SURGES EAST.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE BOUNDARIES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING BURSTS OF WIND.  IN ADDITION...A FEW
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPAWN TORNADOES WITH DESTRUCTIVE
POTENTIAL.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND DISASTER PLANS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE ACTIVATED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF A BOWIE...WEATHERFORD...TO LAMPASAS LINE.
WEST OF A BONHAM...KAUFMAN...CAMERON LINE...ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 300 AND 500 PM...THIS INCLUDES WACO AND THE DALLAS FORT
WORTH METROPLEX.  ACTIVATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

79