Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 AM CST THU MAR 2 2000

SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG A LUFKIN...WACO...TO ABILENE LINE THIS
MORNING. DEWPOINTS FURTHER SOUTH CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S.
AS THE H850 JET DEVELOPS THIS MORNING...WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY. DRY LINE REMAINS POISED FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH TOWARD THE BIG BEND VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD BY MIDDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A TRIPLE POINT OVER THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPES APPROACHING 1500+ J/KG...AND
LI'S OF -2 TO -4 WILL TEAM OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ALREADY INDICATING GOOD
SHEARS AND HODOGRAPHS WILL ONLY IMPROVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED BY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD
REMAINS STRONGLY DIFFLUENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR ALOFT
EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE NOSE OF A 100 KT H250 JET MAXIMUM BY
EVENING. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS PER LATEST
SPC OUTLOOK FOR A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INTO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE
FURTHER SOUTH.

Q-VECTORS INDICATE MOST OF THE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER MAINLY
EAST TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT. WILL TEMPER POPS THIS EVENING EXTREME
WEST WITH ALL BUT THE EASTERN PORTIONS SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER BY DAYBREAK. WILL CARRY A LOW POP EXTREME EAST AROUND
DAYBREAK AS CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER AND
POINTS EAST. DECREASING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

IN THE EXTENDED...A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY WILL NEGATE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW POP SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE LOW LEVEL FETCH ONCE AGAIN RETURNS MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

DFW 72/54/68 871                 ACT 75/57/71 661

.FTW...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES TODAY. t    ...48...

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1015 PM CST WED MAR 1 2000

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

ON THURSDAY...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTH.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT. ALSO...A DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH WITH TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL OCCUR FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

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