Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 2000

UPR RIDGE TO STAY OVR KS-AR WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NRN
PLNS. AN UPR LVL TROF WL RIDE OVR THE RIDGE IN CNTRL/NRN MAN THRU
SAT. WAA PROFILE WAS OCCURRING FOR STATES TO THE S WHILE A CAA
PROFILE WAS TO THE N. HI THETA-E AIR REMAINS ACRS THE AREA. MODELS
INDICATE CAA FM THE N WL CREATE A N-S ORIENTATED THETA-E GRAD ACRS
THE VLY. MORNING INTIALIZATION SUGGEST THE CAA IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH
ON MODELS. BEST 850 HPA WNDS WL SHFT INTO ERN MN TNGT WHILE WND WL
INCR FM THE W BY MORN. SO MSTR CONVERGENCE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR
TNGT. A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDED INTO THE NRN PLNS WITH A
SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING INTO MT LATE TNGT. REASONABLE MID LVL CAP
STAYS ACRS THE CNTRL HI PLNS INTO SD WITH A GOOD TEMP GRAD ACRS
ND-NRN MN THRU SUN. WL GO CHC PRECIP S SAT AND A CHC EVERYWHERE FOR
SAT NGT AND SUN.

.EXTENDED...
CANADIAN AND MRF SUGGEST MEAN UPR RDG WILL RMN ACRS CNTRL US THRU
FCST PD.  BULK OF HOT AIRMASS WILL RMN S OF RGN WITH CWFA CLOSE TO
THE JET.  TSTMS CHC WILL BE TIED TO SHRTWVS WHICH ARE FCST TO MOV
THRU TUE/WED AND AGAIN ON FRI.  NEW MRF/CANADIAN ARE CONSISTENT WITH
PREV FCST.  SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE YESTERDAY/S FCST OF TEMP AND
PCPN.

.FGF...NONE.
BELLES/HOPPES

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-072130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
347 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 2000

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 548 FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA UNTIL 6 PM CDT HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED AT NOON UNTIL 6 PM CDT HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE STABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVEN THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...NONE OF THEM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

BRAZZELL

N