Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND ENDING OF PRECIPITATION
THIS EVENING...AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z. CURRENT STORMS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
ABOUT 3500 TO 4000 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. WITH BEST THETA E
RIDGING AND INSTABILITY EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 00Z. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LAYS BACK BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 03Z. WILL END SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...EARLIEST WORDING NORTH.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH SUFFICIENT
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCE OF ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. 500 TEMPERATURES DROP TO -10 TO -12
WITH THIS WAVE. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...AND LIFT IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH
THIS FEATURE...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SHOWER OR TWO. GOOD
SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH
THE COLLUMN.

.DTX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 668 IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN COUNTIES EXCEPT BAY...MIDLAND AND SAGINAW THROUGH 00Z.

STRUBLE

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-100600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1120 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED.

IF THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SEVERE... THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS TO 70 MPH AND UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. BRIEF MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...SMALL STREAMS AND ROADWAYS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN EXITING OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS VERY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 69.  THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT OCCURRED
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 HAVE HELPED STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE IN THIS AREA.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD END AFTER 4 PM FROM HOWELL TO
FLINT...AFTER 5 PM FROM LAPEER TO ANN ARBOR AND ADRIAN...AND AFTER 7
PM FROM PORT HURON TO DETROIT AND MONROE.

PERSONS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES OR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST SEVERE
WEATHER INFORMATION.

DRC

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-100600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 668 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

HURON     SANILAC     TUSCOLA   SHIAWASSEE   GENESEE     LAPEER
ST CLAIR  LIVINGSTON  OAKLAND   MACOMB       WASHTENAW   WAYNE
LENAWEE   MONROE

SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE BAD AXE...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...THE DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA...ANN ARBOR...MONROE CITY
AND ADRIAN.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH.  HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND BRIEF MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...SMALL
STREAMS AND ROADS.  STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

PERSONS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES OR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED+.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST SEVERE
WEATHER INFORMATION.

DRC