Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1140 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

CONVECTION THIS MORNING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 HAS HELPED COLD FRONT
SPEED SOUTHEASTWARD AND SET UP JUST NORTH.  HOWEVER...THE FRONTS
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND WARM
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT.

WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY CUTTING BACK ON SUNSHINE...WILL CUT
BACK TEMPS A FEW IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.  WILL PRETTY MUCH LEAVE THE TIMING
FOR THIS AREA THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CAPE PUSHING 4000 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY GOING THERE.

DRC

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-100600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1120 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED.

IF THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SEVERE... THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS TO 70 MPH AND UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. BRIEF MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...SMALL STREAMS AND ROADWAYS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN EXITING OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS VERY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 69.  THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT OCCURRED
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 HAVE HELPED STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE IN THIS AREA.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD END AFTER 4 PM FROM HOWELL TO
FLINT...AFTER 5 PM FROM LAPEER TO ANN ARBOR AND ADRIAN...AND AFTER 7
PM FROM PORT HURON TO DETROIT AND MONROE.

PERSONS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES OR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST SEVERE
WEATHER INFORMATION.

DRC