Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1140 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

CONVECTION THIS MORNING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 HAS HELPED COLD FRONT
SPEED SOUTHEASTWARD AND SET UP JUST NORTH.  HOWEVER...THE FRONTS
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND WARM
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT.

WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY CUTTING BACK ON SUNSHINE...WILL CUT
BACK TEMPS A FEW IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.  WILL PRETTY MUCH LEAVE THE TIMING
FOR THIS AREA THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CAPE PUSHING 4000 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY GOING THERE.

DRC

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-091500-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
838 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE THUMB REGION THROUGH
10 AM. SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS TAKE PLACE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THE WARM MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS PROVIDING THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS PROVIDING THE LIFT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH THIS ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SINGULAR IN NATURE BUT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS MORNING...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
WIND TO 70 MPH. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69.  HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SAGINAW AND FLINT
AREAS BY 3 PM DIMINISHING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THERE. SOUTH AND
EAST OF THOSE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO VICINITY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN A TH0REAT UNTIL 6 PM.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST SEVERE
WEATHER INFORMATION.

BGM OKEEFE

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-100600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1120 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED.

IF THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SEVERE... THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS TO 70 MPH AND UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. BRIEF MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...SMALL STREAMS AND ROADWAYS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN EXITING OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS VERY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 69.  THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT OCCURRED
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 HAVE HELPED STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE IN THIS AREA.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD END AFTER 4 PM FROM HOWELL TO
FLINT...AFTER 5 PM FROM LAPEER TO ANN ARBOR AND ADRIAN...AND AFTER 7
PM FROM PORT HURON TO DETROIT AND MONROE.

PERSONS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES OR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST SEVERE
WEATHER INFORMATION.

DRC