Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
306 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2000

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE ND/SD MCS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
CLOUD AMOUNTS AND TEMPS TODAY AND NE/SD MCS AFFECT ON CWA TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW. NO CHANGES TO THIRD PERIOD ON THRU EXTENDED.
FAVORED A COMPRIMISE BETWEEN NGM AND  ETA/MESOETA SOLUTIONS.

TODAY...CONCERNED ABOUT ND/SD MCS TRACKING ESE.  IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER...IT MAY REACH NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING.  WILL MONITOR
SITUATION AN UPDATE OZF ACCORDINLY BEFORE I MAKE MY FINAL DECISION
ON WHETHER TO ADD MORNING PRECIP WORDING.  IN THE MEANTIME...07Z SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWING WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF IA/MO BORDER THIS
MORNING.  ISOLATED SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY LATE
LAST NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM KDSM TO KOTM TO KBRL. SOUTH OF THIS LINE
SKY CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.  TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILED UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DON'T EXPECT BOUNDARY MOVE MUCH...IT MAY EVEN SLIDE SOUTH LATER
TODAY WITH MCS EFFECT ON IT.  ANYWAY...WORDED CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY
BASED ON TRENDS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST
OF THE DAY NORTH OF THE FRONT IN EASTERLY FETCH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS LOWERED TEMPS A LITTLE NORTH
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...NO CHANGES SOUTH.  TRENDED TOWARDS FWC
TEMPS FIRST PERIOD.

SECOND PERIOD INTO EARLY THIRD...MCS WILL DEVELOP IN SD/NE AREA TODAY AND
TRACK EAST INTO WESTERN IA BY 00Z.  THUS BEST CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP
WILL BE TONIGHT.  WITH CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...HIGHERED ALL
POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY TONIGHT WITH MCS EXITING CWA BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.

FOURTH PERIOD...UPR RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH MODERATE 700 MB
CAP AROUND 10-12 CELCIUS AND NO LIFT. THINKING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF
CWA...HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE 30 P0PS IN NE ZONES. WILL LET DAY SHIFT
MAKE DECISION...IF THEY WANT TO CHANGE IT.

.DSM...NONE

KNOLLHOFF

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-061100-

CENTRAL IOWA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
607 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2000

HAZARD--ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND GUSTS
NEAR 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE.

AREA OF CONCERN--MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

TIMING DETAILS--AFTER 6 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM CDT THURSDAY.

METEOROLOGICAL COMMENTS--A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONS--SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FOR FLOODING CONCERNS.

KNOLLHOFF