Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
100 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2000

SHORT UPD COMING NOW RDR BACK IN SRVCE AS OF 1630Z...AND JUST IN
TIME...TOO BOX FOR NRN TIER IN EFFECT BY PRESS TIME. SFC FRONT
ROUGHLY FM APN-MKE-RFD NOW. TEXTBOOK OF AN MCV TRANSITIONING TO SVR
WX MAKER (MIKE FRITSCH TOLD ME THESE THINGS HAPPEN).  JUICE REAMINS
IN PLACE W/ MID 60S TO NR 70 DWPTS ACRS FA.

FNT ADVERTISED EARLIER WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE TOMORROW. MORE TEXTBOOK
STUFF COMING ALONG...AS NEAT JET STREAK INTERACTION LIKELY DURING
MIDDLE OF DAY TOM...SO TALL CLDS TO GET JUST THAT MUCH MORE LIFT
ALONG ALRDY POTENT FNTL BOUNDARY. BUT...THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO CALM
DOWN NICELY AFT SSET ON THURS...W/PASSAGE BRINGING DRIER HI PRES.
FRI MAY END UP BEING A REALLY NICE DAY...AND WL THEREFORE CUT POPS
BACK TO ONLY FAR NRN TIER WHERE COLDEST AIR WL LIE.

XTNDD: MRF MUCHO CONSISTENT. ECMWF DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH STRENGTH OF
NEXT SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. NICE SAT...NOT TERRIBLE
SUNDAY EITHER  MON BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT - TWO IN THE SAME FORECAST
- IS THAT POSSIBLE??  TEMPS...WL ROLL W/GUID.

.CTP...SVR WATCH 638 THRU 22Z FOR NWRN CWA.

DANGELO

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042-022222-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1225 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WERE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND NORTHEASTERN OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEAR WARREN AND BRADFORD BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ALONG WITH HAIL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

THE THREAT FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER FURTHER EAST WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM REPEAT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME TO CAUSE FLOODING. PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

LAMBERT/DANGELO

PAZ004>006-009-010-022200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
100 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2000

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FOR THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...

COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE:

CAMERON...ELK...MCKEAN...POTTER AND WARREN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY ENTER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM.

THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM REPEAT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME TO CAUSE FLOODING. PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING WINDS GUSTS OVER 58 MPH...OR HAIL OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...ARE POSSIBLE.

LAMBERT/DANGELO