Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Billings, MT

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
847 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2000

.TUE AND WED...
WITH ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER AND ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX
UNTIL 200 AM...HAVE NOT HAD TIME TO LOOK AT NEW MODEL DATA.  WILL
UPDATE AND RECONFIGURE ZONES FOR THE NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
STROBIN

.THU...FRI...AND SAT...
WARM PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THE
PERIOD. ALL MODELS INDICATING ONE MORE DAY OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THURSDAY...THUS WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MRF AND ETA
700MB TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY 8 TO 12 DEGREES...WHILE AVN IS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER. SINCE AVN IS HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING TODAYS
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY MOISTURE...WILL STICK MORE WITH THE ETA FOR
THURSDAY AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES. FRIDAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WEST COAST EJECTS OUT AND RIDES OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL US AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER. THE TROUGH WILL ACT
TO BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPS...BUT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA...SO WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. SATURDAY
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE AREA...WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON WHETHER ECMWF OR MRF IS TO
BE FOLLOWED. ECMWF IS OLDER.  WILL FOLLOW THE NEWER MRF THIS TIME.
JZ/CHB

BIL TTTBB 059/079 055/084 058/087 057/086 058/089 634443 52
LVM TTTBB 054/078 052/083 055/085 055/084 056/087 634443 52
HDN TTTBB 058/081 053/086 058/088 055/087 057/090 634443 52
MLS TTTBB 063/085 057/088 061/090 060/088 059/090 634443 52
4BQ TTTBB 062/086 057/089 060/092 060/089 060/091 634443 52
BHK TTTBB 061/084 056/087 060/091 059/087 059/088 634443 52
SHR TTTBB 056/080 051/085 055/089 055/087 056/090 634443 52

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
625 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2000

MTZ028>029-034>035-038>042-030200-
GOLDEN VALLEY-MUSSELSHELL-BIG HORN-ROSEBUD-CARTER-CUSTER-
CARBON-TREASURE-FALLON-POWDER RIVER-YELLOWSTONE-STILLWATER-PARK-
SWEET GRASS-WHEATLAND-
625 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR BIG HORN...
CARBON...GOLDEN VALLEY...MUSSELSHELL...PARK...STILLWATER...SWEET
GRASS...WHEATLAND...AND YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA OVER SOUTHERN
MONTANA. AS A RESULT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THESE COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONGTINUE OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE.

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