Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
315 AM MST TUE MAR 7 2000

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY...IN OTHER
WORDS LOTS OF WEATHER.  THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA IN
GENERAL BUT ARE WAY OFF ON THE NORTHWARD RUSH OF MOISTURE.  LOCAL
SFM MODEL IS BEST...WITH 20-25 KT S WINDS TURNING TO SE BY MIDDAY.
THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE STARTING NOW...AND THE SPEEDS ARE PROBABLY
UNDERDONE.  SFM MODEL PRODUCES TURNING TO ELY WINDS N OF DENVER...
WE MAY HAVE A NICE CYCLONE OR THE FLOW MAY BECOME TOO SELY AND TOO
STRONG.  WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM...BIG BUST FOR NGM MOS
TODAY.  EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE WHICH IS ADVECTING NORTH NOW.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY
ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NERN CO DURING THE DAY...WHILE PERHAPS
SLIDING EAST ACROSS SERN CO.  PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS IN
SELY FLOW SHOULD BE THE CONVECTIVE FOCUS...I.E. WRN KS INTO NERN CO.
MODEL SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR 55-60 DEGREE TEMPS AND 40-50 DEW POINTS
AT 00Z GIVE CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LIS OF -4 TO -8.  THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND TURNING...ESPECIALLY IN NERN CO...TO
SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL THOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
PROBABLY THE GREATEST THREAT.  THE DRIER DENVER AREA SHOULD BE LESS
ACTIVE...BUT STILL PLENTY UNSTABLE.      GIMMESTAD

LONG TERM DISCUSSION: QUITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR
NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO WITH PASSAGE OF DESERT SW LOW BY LATER TNT. UPR
LVL LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND NOW APPEARS BE LIFTING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS UPR LEVEL JET BOTTOMS OUT AND
HEADING OUR WAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR IN LIFTING LOW OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS NEBRASKA BY WED AFTN. VARIOUS DETAILS
ARE DIFFERENT IN MODELS BUT MAIN WORD THEY ALL SPELL IS WIND!
RAPIDLY INCREASING SFC GRADIENT THIS EVENING WITH PROGGED GJT-DEN
GRADIENT REACHING CLOSE TO 20MB. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THRU TNT IT
WON'T TAKE MUCH TO CARRY STRONGER WINDS AT 700MB DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. MAIN WIND EVENT WOULD BE AFT 06Z...BUT WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND STILL STRONG S-SW WNDS...THESE HI
WINDS WOULD BE ALSO PRESENT BEFORE UPPER LOW PASSAGE. ALL MODELS
ALSO SHOWING WINDS AT 700MB IN THE 50-60KT RANGE AS LOW LIFTS INTO
THE PLAINS...THEN FAIRLY DECENT DOWNWARD FORCING SHOWN ON DIV-Q
LAYERED FIELDS THRU WED AM.  WITH ALL SAID WILL ISSUE A HIGH WND
WATCH FOR MUCH OF NERN PLAINS/FOOTHILLS OF NERN CO FOR TNT/WED AM.
WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH TIMING AT THIS POINT...BUT STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVR FOOTHILLS AREAS TNT AND OVER FAR NERN PLAINS TOWARDS WED
MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOWFALL ACCUM OVER THE PLAINS ON WED. INITIALLY TNT...TOO WARM FOR
SNOW...BUT SHOULD BE ENUF COLD AIR MOVING IN OVR NERN CO FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUM. CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS...THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW.

A BATCH OF SNOW FOR THE MTNS ALSO ON TAP THRU TNT WITH INCREASING NW
FLOW...AMPLE MSTR...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THIS EVENING. THESE STRONG
PARAMETERS TAPER OFF SOME LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION. SNOW MODEL
YIELDING SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS BUT WILL HOLD OFF SO DAY SHIFT CAN
GET A LOOK SINCE STILL 2ND PRD.

QUICK LOOK AT MRF SHOWING EXTENDED PRD LOOKING_ MORE ZONALLY WITH
MAINLY OFF AND ON AGAIN THREAT OF SNOW IN THE MTNS...BUT MAINLY DRY
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. ENTREKIN

.DEN...HIGH WIND WATCH TNT/WED AM ZNS..35>40..42>45..48>50.