Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
230 PM MST MON MAR 6 2000

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  STILL IN A HOLDING PATTERN AS WE WAIT FOR
NEXT TROF TO MOVE INTO AREA.  WITH STG SLY FLOW APPEARS THIS WILL
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE TOMORROW.  THIS MEANS TNGT TO BE RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL WITH A SHIELD OF HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS SPREADING OVER
THE AREA BUT DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN YET.  BRISK SSWLY FLOW ALF CONTG
THRU THE NIGHT SO GUSTY WIND IN MTNS AND FTHLS BUT LOOK FOR LOWER
ELVNS TO DECUPL AFTER DARK.  WILL NOT MENTN WINDS IN PLAINS ALTHO
THOSE AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE WINDS ARE TYPICALLY FROM S WILL PROBLY
REACH 15 KTS OR SO DUE COMBO OF DRAINAGE AND SFC PRES GRAD.  WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN FAN AND FWC FOR LOWS TNGT AS CLOUDS AND
WINDS SHUD KEEP AMS FAIRLY WELL MIXED AND RETARD RADNL COOLING.
BOODA

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  INTERESTING PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AS NEXT IN SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS PUSHES ACROSS CWA.  SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS STILL EXPECTED IN
EASTERN COLORADO LATE TUESDAY...WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS  AIRMASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE DURING DAY...AND UPWARD
MOTION AHEAD OF TROUGH FOR INITIAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MODELS HAVE SIMILAR CONSENSUS OF
PRECIPITATION BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH
EVENTUAL POSITION OF SURFACE LOW TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH.  AM LEANING
TOWARD THE ETA AND AVN SOLUTIONS...WITH SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE IN
EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING.  THIS GIVES NORTHEAST COLORADO A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE...CENTERING AROUND 06Z.  PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.  SNOW AMOUNTS
ALSO A QUESTION...BEST INITIAL GUESS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...DEPENDING ON
LOCATION.  LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROVIDE BETTER NUMBERS.
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN ALPINE AREAS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHEN FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS PLAINS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
OR EVEN ENDING DURING THE MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
NEBRASKA.  WRAPAROUND MOISTURE TO HANG AROUND.  SURFACE GRADIENT
PROGGED TO REMAIN TIGHT...SO LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY MOST AREAS.
MOUNTAINS SNOWS TO CONTINUE OVER MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH ON THE
DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LONG TERM MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT OPINIONS
ON WHEN THE NEXT TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT CWA.  FOR A
CHANGE OF PACE...THE MRF IS SLOWER AND IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THAN
THE NOGAPS FOR THE FIRST TROUGH....THEN FASTER WITH THE SECOND.
MODELS ALSO HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE LOCATIONS OF THE TROUGHS.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE...LOOKS LIKE THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND
POSITIONS SEEM THE BEST.  SO...A BREAK FOR THURSDAY...THEN CHANCE
FOR PRECIP FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.   D-L

.DEN...NONE.