Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
300 PM MST TUE MAR 7 2000

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  UNUSUALLY ACTIVE AFTN OF SVR WX ON NERN PLAINS.
ISNT IT STILL WINTER?  T-STORMS (SOME SVR) HV BEEN FIRING ALG A DRY
LINE SINCE 10 AM  DEWPTS E OF THE LINEN ARE IN THE 50S...I BLV THE
FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.  T-STORMS HV BEEN RACING N-NEWRD AT 40-45 KTS.
SURPRISINGLY NO REPORTS OF SVR OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THIS STORM MOVEMENT.
SVR HAIL HAS BEEN MAIN CONCERN.  DRY LINE HAS MADE LTL EWRD PROGRESS
THIS AFTN...SO SHOULD SEE SHWRS/T-STORMS CONTINUING ALG AN E OF THIS
LINE NEXT SVRL HRS...A FEW PSBLY SVR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEEPENING UPR LOW OVR NWRN NW ATTM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PAC COLD FNT STILL W OF THE CONT DVD.  MDLS LIFT UPR LOW NEWRD OVR THE
CWA REACHING NWRN KS BY AROUND 12Z/WED.  GRIDDED 700 MB WNDS PROGD AT
55-60KTS AT 310 DEGS OVR NERN CO PLNS AFT 06Z.  LOW TO MID-LVL TEMP
ADVECTION NOT TERRIBLY COLD FOLLOWING FROPA...BUT TEMPS CERTAINLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR GOOD SNOW PRODUCTION IN THE MTNS WHERE 4-7 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
EXPCTD BY 18Z/WED.  AS USUAL...FAVORED W-NW FACING SLOPE LKLY TO PICK UP
LCLY MORE DUE TO STG OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOLLOWING 7H TROF PASSAGE.  WILL
ISSUE A SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR MTN ZNS 33 AND 34...WHERE NEAR
WHITEOUT CNDTNS PSBL ON THE HIGHER PASSES...ESPLY AFT MIDNIGHT WITH CAA.
IN THE FTHLS AND ON THE NERN PLAINS...WILL GO WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH
BEGINNING THIS EVE FOLLOWING FROPA.  APRS STRONGEST WINDS DVLP AFT
MIDNIGHT.   SEE LTL IF MEASURABLE PCPN IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND ON THE
PLAINS WITH STG DOWNSLOPE FLOW.   BAKER

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CWA ON BACKSIDE FLOW.
MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE UPPER LOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS BY 12Z.
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SURFACE SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO QUIBBLE
ABOUT.  IN GENERAL...TIGHTLY WOUND SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AT 12Z.  IN ALL...WIND THREAT IS REAL ACROSS
PLAINS FOR MOST OF DAY.  CROSS SECTIONS ALL SHOW 50-60KT WINDS AT
700 MB AS WELL AS THE FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z CLOSER TO FOOTHILLS...AND NEAR 00Z ALONG BORDER AREAS.
MIDNIGHT SHIFT WAS WELL AWAKE...AND ALREADY HOISTED HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MOST OF PLAINS INTO MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.  BASED ON LATEST
DATA...WILL PUSH THE WATCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR BORDER.  PRIME TIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z BUT POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE BEYOND 18Z. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST THE WATCH (OR EVENTUAL
WARNING).  THE THREAT SHOULD END BY EVENING AS ENTIRE SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE PLAINS AND GRADIENT RELAXES.  SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION...
MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS..DURING THE MORNING.  STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY
FLOW...LOTS OF WIND...MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE
CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY (SEE ABOVE)
DURING THE MORNING.  WILL DO A TOTAL AMOUNT OF 4-7 INCHES.  WILL
NEED TO STRESS BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN UPCOMING
STATEMENTS.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES...FOR THE
MOST PART...DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LOW DOMINATES.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN FLOW ALOFT GOES
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH HEADS TOWARD
STATE.  ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS.  DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL PUSH THE MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ONCE
AGAIN.  REST OF AREA DRY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  GUIDANCE
TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM AND SEEM TO HAVE THE TREND WRONG.  WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER PLAINS WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER
THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SHOWS.

IN LONGER TERM...LONG TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT...AND ACTUALLY SEEM
REASONABLE.  AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY...ZONAL PATTERN TO SET UP
FOR WEEKEND FOR PERIODS OF SNOW IN MOUNTAINS...DRY DOWNSLOPE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  WIND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.                D-L

.DEN...SNOW/BLOWING SNOW TNT/WED AM ZNS...33..34.
       HIGH WIND WATCH TNT/WED ZNS..35>45..48>50.

COZ041-045-046-071900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
945 AM MST TUE MAR 7 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PALMER DIVIDE AND EAST OF METRO
   DENVER...

AT 935 AM MST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN ELBERT AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES.  THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH ALONG A DRY LINE INTO EASTERN ARAPAHOE AND EASTERN
ADAMS...MORGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN WELD COUNTIES.

ALL PEOPLE IN THE TOWNS OF ELBERT...KIOWA...DEER TRAIL...AGATE...
BYERS...HOYT...MATHESON...LIMON...WIGGINS...FORT MORGAN AND BRUSH
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM THESE STORMS UNTIL
NOON MST.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART
OF NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 300 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER
CALL 1-800-287-2498.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

COZ030-032>050-072000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1145 AM MST TUE MAR 7 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.  AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY TO
SOUTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY ARE COVERED BY THIS WATCH.  LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH FAST
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.  STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING OF DUST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS.  A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO
BECOME SEVERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...THEN INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION
WITH PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM.  LOOK FOR SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG WINDS PRODUCING
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PASSES.

IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.  WINDS COULD GUST IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH IN
THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS FROM 50 TO 65 MPH ON THE
PLAINS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS...ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS MAY
BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY:  IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE WINDY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ON THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IT
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL NO DOUBT
MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN TODAY.

/NBAKER

COZ042-044-045-046-047-048-049-050-072215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
300 PM MST TUE MAR 7 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 300 PM MST...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ALLOWED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO TO EXPIRE AT 300 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN COLORADO...

LINCOLN...EASTERN ELBERT...EASTERN ADAMS...WASHINGTON...
MORGAN...PHILLIPS...EASTERN ARAPAHOE...SEDGWICK...LOGAN AND
NORTHEASTERN WELD.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
305 PM MST TUE MAR 07 2000

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR MARCH 07 2000...

TIME(MST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1003 AM    17 SE RUSH                CO   1.50 INCH HAIL
03/07/00   LINCOLN

1053 AM    NORTH STERLING RESERVOIR   CO  0.75 INCH HAIL
07/07/00   LOGAN

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
305 PM MST TUE MAR 07 2000

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR MARCH 07 2000...

TIME(MST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1003 AM    17 SE RUSH                CO   1.50 INCH HAIL
03/07/00   LINCOLN

1053 AM    NORTH STERLING RESERVOIR   CO  0.75 INCH HAIL
07/07/00   LOGAN