Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
234 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000

LATEST SFC ANLYS SHOWED BNDRY STILL S OF LBB.  FCST CALLS FOR BNDRY
TO MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTN AND EVE THEN BECOME
QSTNRY ACRS THE TX PNHDL LATER TNGT. BKN TO OVC STRATUS OVER THE
PNHDLS THIS AFTN HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. HWVR...BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER NOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR TEMPS WARM INTO
THE 80S. ALBEIT SLIGHTLY BLO THE HIGHS ANTICIPATED EARLIER...STILL
FEEL TEMPS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY FOR AMS TO BECOME VERY BUOYANT BY
LATE AFTN/EVE WITH CAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 RANGE.  AS THE AMS
DESTABILIZES...THE UPPER LOW...NOW PUSHING ACRS AZ...WILL APPROACH
THE PNHDLS AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND UPR DIVERGENCE FROM
LATE THIS AFTN AND THRU TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. OPTED TO GO WITH AN AREAL
TERM FOR TNGT...SCT IF NOT NUMEROUS...AND MENTION SVR. ALSO CONCERNED
ABOUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BNDRY ORIENTED TO THE STEERING FLO
AND THE HIGH PWS...SPCLY IN THE ERN COUNTIES. WITH THE WAY THE EVENT
IS UNFOLDING...DECIDED NOT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC ON WHERE TO PLACE THE
HVY RAINFALL BUT RATHER MENTION IT IN ALL ZONES. ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ERN ZONES WAS DISCUSSED AMONG THE SHIFT TEAM AND
OUN OFFICE AND THE CONSENSUS IS TO HOLD OFF SINCE 1) LOCATION OF
TRAINING STORMS VRY UNCERTAIN ATTM 2) THE WSR-88D OVER-ESTIMATED RNFL
LAST NIGHT SUGGESTING THE GROUNDS ARE NOT AS WET AND STILL CAPABLE OF
TAKING ANOTHER FEW INCHES AND 3) THE FFG STILL RATHER HIGH WITH 3 HR
VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES.

THE SHRTWV TROF PASSES THE PNHDLS ON FRI WITH LLVLS DRYING OUT
FROM W TO E DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. TIMING SUGGESTS THAT WRN
ZONES MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING PCPN TO MID-DAY. DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLGT CHC POP TO COVER THIS. MSTR AND DYNAMICS HANG ON A
LITTLE LONGER IN THE ERN ZONES SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO THE CHC
CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY THERE.

CDFNT MOVES ACRS THE PNHDLS FRI NITE AND SAT MRNG. WEAK UPSLP
DVLPS BEHIND IT BUT MSTR MAY BE LIMITED. THE SLGT CHC POP THAT THE
LAST FCST HAD LOOKS REASONABLE FOR FRI NITE AND SAT AND WILL BE
RETAINED.

UPR RDG BUILDS EWD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE PNHDLS. SAME GOES FOR MONDAY MRNG AND AFTN. THEN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUE...INTRODUCED A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS WITH NEXT CDFNT
PASSAGE...POST FRONTAL UPSLP...AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING OVER
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AMA BB 060/087 058/085 059 07722
DHT BB 056/087 052/083 056 07622=

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SP