Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 PM EDT MON APR 17 2000

SORRY THIS IS SO LATE...THINGS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE...SO WL BE BRIEF.

BASICALLY...HAVE TSTMS ACRS WRN AND NRN SECTS OF CWA. SAT PIX SHOWS
2 MORE ROUNDS OF STMS ACRS ERN KY AND WRN VA.  THE TSTMS HAVE DEC IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MV N OF THE WM FRNT HOWEVER AM SEING LTNG TO THE
PATOMIC SO WL MENTION POS TSTMS IN ALL ZNS FOR TON. ATTM SRN VA IS
SEENG SOME DECENT SUN SO THIS WL HELP TO KEEP THE AREA UNSTABLE INTO
THE EARLY EVE.

DISC...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD. SO
THANKFULLY DID NOT HAVE TO MAKE TOO MANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE
FCST. AS EXPECTED THE SCND LOW IS DEVNG IN FAR WRN NC. AS THE UPR LVL
TROF EVER SO SLOWLY MVS INTO THE CAROLIANS TON AND THEN OFF THE CST
TUE EVE...THE SFC LOW WL PUSH E TO NR RDU AND THEN TO NR MHX TUE EVE.
THIS SETS THE FA UP FOR A VERY WET PATTERN.  FLOW REMAINS E IN THE
NRN PORITON OF THE FA WHILE THE WARM SECT REGEIME WILL CONT THRU A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT ACRS THE FAR S.  XPCT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN TO DIE DOWN THIS EVE AND FOR MORE OF A GENERAL RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA.  24HR MODEL QPF/S ARE SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE BUT
ARE DISPLACNG THE MAX PRECIP AMOUNTS IN DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE FA.
TEND TO BELEIVE THE ETA/AVN SOL OF THE MAX QPF IN THE W W/UPSLOPE
FLOW AIDING THE DEV. SINCE A GOOD PART OF I95 AND W AS WELL AS POINTS
N OF RIC HAVE SEEN ACT TOD...WL CONT/ISSUE A FFA FOR TON.

AS FOR TUE...AS THE LOW MVS E/SE WNDS WL SHIFT TO THE N/NE ACRS THE
FA CAUSING MOISTURE TO CONTINUE FUNNELNG INTO THE AREA. SO XPCT TO
SEE THE PRECIP CONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ESP IN THE E.  THE
RA WL END TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW AND DYNAMICS SHIFT OFF THE CST.
A WK HI RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR WED AND THUR ALLOWNG FOR DRY COND.
ANOTHER SYS APPROACHES ON FRI SO WL CONT W MENTION OF SH AND
TSTMS. THIS LOW ZIPS OFF THE CAOST FOR SAT BUT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MAY
HAVE SOME RESIDUAL MOIST SO XPCT TO SEE LING CLDS.

AS FOR TEMPS...FOR NOW WL TREND W/GUIDANCE VALUES.

CSTL WTRS...AS THE LOW DEV AND PUSHES E...XPCT SCA COND TO DEV ALNG
THE CST AND IN THE BAY FOR TON AND TUE.  WL CONT W WNDS JUST BLOW
CRHIT IN THE SND THOUGH.

.AKQ...FLOOD WATCH VAZ048-049-061>076-079>083-087 FOR TONIGHT.
       SCA FOR CHES BAY FM SMITH PT S....AND CSTAL WATERS FM
       FENWICK ISLAND TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.

SHADE

NCZ012-013-030-VAZ060>061-065>068-070-079>081-087>089-
-092-180800-

AREAL OUTLINE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 173
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
148 PM EDT MON APR 17 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 173 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INTERIOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 8 PM EDT...

IN NORTH CAROLINA 3 COUNTIES

BERTIE           HERTFORD         NORTHAMPTON

IN VIRGINIA 14 COUNTIES

AMELIA           BRUNSWICK        CHESTERFIELD
CUMBERLAND       DINWIDDIE        GREENSVILLE
LUNENBURG        MECKLENBURG      NOTTOWAY
PRINCE EDWARD    PRINCE GEORGE    SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY            SUSSEX

IN VIRGINIA 5 INDEPENDENT CITIES
COLONIAL HGTS   EMPORIA           FRANKLIN
HOPEWELL        PETERSBURG

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH
AREA.  IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE SHELTER.  STAY
TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SAMMLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD,VA
449 PM EDT MON APR 17 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

220 PM    PETERSBURG                VA    .75 INCH HAIL
04/17/00   PETERSBURG;

220 PM    PETERSBURG                VA    .75 INCH HAIL
04/17/00   PETERSBURG;

425 PM    FORT PICKETT              VA   .75 INCH HAIL
04/17/00   DINWIDDIE                      YARD COVERED WITH HAIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD,VA
542 PM EDT MON APR 17 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....
\
0536 PM    4 W COURTLAND             VA     .88 INCH HAIL
04/17/00   SOUTHAMPTON

CY