Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT MON APR 17 2000

CUR SIT...MSAS AND REG OBS PLACE THE WM FRNT JUST NR ORF SW TO NR
RZZ AND GSO. SAT PIX SHOWS A DECENT AMT OF CONVECTION FIRING TO
THE N OF THE FRNT FM FVX AND W...WHILE MUCH OF THE SERN PART OF THE
FA IS SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.  TEMPS ARE RESPONDNG QUICKLY WITH
AKQ AREADY AT 72 DEG  WL ADJUST TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE S TO
ACCOMIDATE THE SUN. THE MAIN S/W IS CLEARLY DIPCTED IN WV. THNK
THAT IT IS ORIENTED SLIGHT N OF WHERE MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE.  SUR 12Z SNNDGS AND BUFKIT SHOW THAT THE AREA IS
ALREADY AND WL REMAIN UNSTABLE TODAY. LI/S ARE ARND -2 ACRS SRN
VA AND NC ZNS WHILE CAPES AR BTWN 500 AND 13OO.

AS FOR TODAY...XPCT THE MAIN LOW TO GRADUALLY SLIDE SE INTO ERN KY
WHILE A SECOND LOW DEV IN WRN NC. THE WM FRNT WL LIKELY WABBLE A
LITTLE N AND S THRU THE DAY. BUT DO NOT XPCT IT TO REALLY BEGIN ITS
NRN MVMT UNTIL TON AS THE SECOND LOW DEEPENS AND MVS INTO NCNTRL NC.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLAMMY TO THE N OF THE FRNT W/E FLOW INC THRU THE
AFT.  XPCT TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CON ACRS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT
AND CNTRL VA BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS IS ACRS THE S.  WOULD NOT
BE SUPRISED TO SEE SOME HAIL W THE ELEVATED CONV...ESP W/WET BULB
ZEROS ARND 9K FT. IN THE WM SECTOR THOUGH COULD ALSO SEE SOME WNDS.
HVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR NWRN CNTYS. W THE OVERRUNNG AND
STRENGTHENG FLOW...RA WL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALNG THE MTNS THIS AFT
AND INTO TON. THUS ISSUED A FFA. WL REANALYIZE THE FLD POTENTIAL FOR
PNTS S AND E WTH THE AFT PKG.

CSTL WTRS...XPCT THE SE TO E FLOW TO INC THE AFT WHICH WL CAUSE
SEAS TO BUILD INTO SCA CRIT BY LATE AFT.  ALSO XPCT SPEEDS TODAY
AND REACH CRIT TON. IN THE BAY...XPCT WNDS TO INC TO SCA CONT THIS
EVE.  THE SND HOWEVER SHULD REMAIN JUST BLO CRIT THRU THE PD.

.AKQ...FLOOD WATCH VAZ048-049-061>064-068-069 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
          TONIGHT. SCA FOR CHES BAY FM SMITH PT S....AND CSTAL
          WATERS FM FENWICK ISLAND TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.

SHADE

NCZ012-013-030-VAZ060>061-065>068-070-079>081-087>089-
-092-180800-

AREAL OUTLINE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 173
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
148 PM EDT MON APR 17 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 173 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INTERIOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 8 PM EDT...

IN NORTH CAROLINA 3 COUNTIES

BERTIE           HERTFORD         NORTHAMPTON

IN VIRGINIA 14 COUNTIES

AMELIA           BRUNSWICK        CHESTERFIELD
CUMBERLAND       DINWIDDIE        GREENSVILLE
LUNENBURG        MECKLENBURG      NOTTOWAY
PRINCE EDWARD    PRINCE GEORGE    SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY            SUSSEX

IN VIRGINIA 5 INDEPENDENT CITIES
COLONIAL HGTS   EMPORIA           FRANKLIN
HOPEWELL        PETERSBURG

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH
AREA.  IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE SHELTER.  STAY
TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SAMMLER