Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT MON APR 17 2000

CUR SIT...MSAS AND REG OBS PLACE THE WM FRNT JUST NR ORF SW TO NR
RZZ AND GSO. SAT PIX SHOWS A DECENT AMT OF CONVECTION FIRING TO
THE N OF THE FRNT FM FVX AND W...WHILE MUCH OF THE SERN PART OF THE
FA IS SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.  TEMPS ARE RESPONDNG QUICKLY WITH
AKQ AREADY AT 72 DEG  WL ADJUST TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE S TO
ACCOMIDATE THE SUN. THE MAIN S/W IS CLEARLY DIPCTED IN WV. THNK
THAT IT IS ORIENTED SLIGHT N OF WHERE MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE.  SUR 12Z SNNDGS AND BUFKIT SHOW THAT THE AREA IS
ALREADY AND WL REMAIN UNSTABLE TODAY. LI/S ARE ARND -2 ACRS SRN
VA AND NC ZNS WHILE CAPES AR BTWN 500 AND 13OO.

AS FOR TODAY...XPCT THE MAIN LOW TO GRADUALLY SLIDE SE INTO ERN KY
WHILE A SECOND LOW DEV IN WRN NC. THE WM FRNT WL LIKELY WABBLE A
LITTLE N AND S THRU THE DAY. BUT DO NOT XPCT IT TO REALLY BEGIN ITS
NRN MVMT UNTIL TON AS THE SECOND LOW DEEPENS AND MVS INTO NCNTRL NC.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLAMMY TO THE N OF THE FRNT W/E FLOW INC THRU THE
AFT.  XPCT TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CON ACRS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT
AND CNTRL VA BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS IS ACRS THE S.  WOULD NOT
BE SUPRISED TO SEE SOME HAIL W THE ELEVATED CONV...ESP W/WET BULB
ZEROS ARND 9K FT. IN THE WM SECTOR THOUGH COULD ALSO SEE SOME WNDS.
HVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR NWRN CNTYS. W THE OVERRUNNG AND
STRENGTHENG FLOW...RA WL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALNG THE MTNS THIS AFT
AND INTO TON. THUS ISSUED A FFA. WL REANALYIZE THE FLD POTENTIAL FOR
PNTS S AND E WTH THE AFT PKG.

CSTL WTRS...XPCT THE SE TO E FLOW TO INC THE AFT WHICH WL CAUSE
SEAS TO BUILD INTO SCA CRIT BY LATE AFT.  ALSO XPCT SPEEDS TODAY
AND REACH CRIT TON. IN THE BAY...XPCT WNDS TO INC TO SCA CONT THIS
EVE.  THE SND HOWEVER SHULD REMAIN JUST BLO CRIT THRU THE PD.

.AKQ...FLOOD WATCH VAZ048-049-061>064-068-069 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
          TONIGHT. SCA FOR CHES BAY FM SMITH PT S....AND CSTAL
          WATERS FM FENWICK ISLAND TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.

SHADE