Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST WED JUL 7 1999

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL KEEP
SOUTHERN ARIZONA IN A VERY MOIST MONSOON FLOW. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WINDS...ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...IN BETWEEN WAVES THIS MORNING...A TOUCH OF SUBSIDENCE
OUT THERE. ALSO A LITTLE (BUT NOT AS MUCH AS I EXPECTED) COOLING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS TO HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ONLY A
LITTLE. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET STARTED WITH HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BUT LESS ORGANIZATION THAN THE PAST 48
HRS. THAT SHOULD CHANGE THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING IN
FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN CHIHUAHUA). UNCERTAIN
ABOUT ITS STRENGTH...BUT RIGHT NOW ID SAY ITS GOING TO BE A BUSY
NIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS TREND IN THIS DIRECTION...SO I DONT
ANTICIPATE UPDATES AT THIS TIME. WE MAY END UP HITTING THE COVERAGE
HARDER AND ADDING SOME HEAVY RAIN WORDING OVERNIGHT. IF EVERYTHING
LOOKS LIKE ITS COMING TOGETHER RIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING. IF OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS DO
WARRANT THIS...WE PROBABLY WONT SEE MUCH AROUND FOR MOST OF
TOMORROW. ON THE GRIPPING HAND...IF THINGS DONT GET ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING...THEN I GUARANTEE TOMORROW WILL BE EXTREMELY BUSY. NOT EASY
TIMING UPS AND DOWNS DEEP IN THE MONSOON. ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH
PITCHED WHINE. OVERALL...LARGE SCALE PATTERN STILL SITTING PRETTY
FOR A BUSY MONSOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. MEYER

.TWC...NONE.