Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999

Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 7, 1999Santa Cruz County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 7, 1999, 2:10 PM MST for Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 110 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 7, 1999, 2:10 PM MST (21:10 UTC)
Expired: Jul 7, 1999, 4:00 PM MST
In force: 110 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Whole counties

County Santa Cruz County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 17 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -196 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1276 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KTUS 072114 COR
FFWTUS
AZC023-072300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED FOR STORM MOTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST WED JUL 7 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA
  PATAGONIA...TUBAC...AND SONOITA

* UNTIL 400 PM MST

* AT 205 PM... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SANTA RITA
  MOUNTAINS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THESE SLOW-MOVING
  STORMS. THIS SAME AREA WAS AFFECTED BY UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
  YESTERDAY.

FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT. MOVE AWAY FROM CREEKrS..CANYONS AND
WASHES IMMEDIATELY.

PYTLAK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 7, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 40 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST WED JUL 7 1999

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL KEEP
SOUTHERN ARIZONA IN A VERY MOIST MONSOON FLOW. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WINDS...ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...IN BETWEEN WAVES THIS MORNING...A TOUCH OF SUBSIDENCE
OUT THERE. ALSO A LITTLE (BUT NOT AS MUCH AS I EXPECTED) COOLING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS TO HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ONLY A
LITTLE. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET STARTED WITH HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BUT LESS ORGANIZATION THAN THE PAST 48
HRS. THAT SHOULD CHANGE THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING IN
FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN CHIHUAHUA). UNCERTAIN
ABOUT ITS STRENGTH...BUT RIGHT NOW ID SAY ITS GOING TO BE A BUSY
NIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS TREND IN THIS DIRECTION...SO I DONT
ANTICIPATE UPDATES AT THIS TIME. WE MAY END UP HITTING THE COVERAGE
HARDER AND ADDING SOME HEAVY RAIN WORDING OVERNIGHT. IF EVERYTHING
LOOKS LIKE ITS COMING TOGETHER RIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING. IF OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS DO
WARRANT THIS...WE PROBABLY WONT SEE MUCH AROUND FOR MOST OF
TOMORROW. ON THE GRIPPING HAND...IF THINGS DONT GET ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING...THEN I GUARANTEE TOMORROW WILL BE EXTREMELY BUSY. NOT EASY
TIMING UPS AND DOWNS DEEP IN THE MONSOON. ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH
PITCHED WHINE. OVERALL...LARGE SCALE PATTERN STILL SITTING PRETTY
FOR A BUSY MONSOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. MEYER

.TWC...NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 7, 1:57 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	33 min
Jul 7, 2:58 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pinal	32 min
Jul 7, 3:43 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	47 min
Jul 7, 4:12 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	63 min
Jul 7, 4:14 PM MST	Tornado Warning	TWC	Pima	36 min
Jul 7, 4:33 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	47 min
Jul 7, 4:33 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	47 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 1999 Every flash flood warning in 1999

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.